Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 251820
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Showers and storms continue to trek across east Texas late this
morning, with some areas beginning to become capable of producing
heavy rainfall and small hail. The potential for severe weather
will continue as these storms track east across the ArkLaTex this
afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary associated threat,
along with a possible tornado or two, particularly across the
easternmost extent of the ArkLaTex, into north central and
northeast Louisiana.

No major changes are required to the existing forecast package.
Temperatures look to climb into the upper 60s north to lower 70s
south ahead of incoming rainfall. Ingested the most recent
temperature and dew point observations and interpolated through to
00Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Cloudy and mild this morning with a wide range of 60s. It`s lower
60s east of I-49 and mid to upper 60s where the winds are a
little stronger in our west. Southeast winds prevail and are
gusting in the 20s for eastern Texas. As the line advances
eastward, the pressure gradient will get a boost with some
stronger gusts over 30 mph. So we have ended up with two areas
for Wind Advisory with Tyler seeing criteria back around midnight.
This small segment will see diminishing winds once the line
pushes by later this morning and still from the SW and not
shifting to NW and post frontal until this evening. So our highs
will vary with warmer numbers ahead of the line and average in the
lower 70s, but SW winds and clearing skies could see warmer
numbers wait until it out in east Texas. The strong winds remain
gusty along and ahead of the line with warmest air.

Our KSHV 88D radar has been in precip mode for hours now and we
are seeing streamer showers ahead of the line of thunderstorms
knocking on our door. The heavier showers and thunderstorms
currently stretch from near Battiest to Sulphur Springs to Alma
and Waco. So far, so good with Special Weather Statements covering
parts of McCurtain County now. We can expect that SPC is going to
be on top of this system and we may see a watch before heating
gets going or at least a mesoscale discussion. For now they
continue with a Marginal Risk this morning and the
Slight/Enhanced area remains largely the same for our mid to late
heating, shifting the line into the MS River delta region before
sunset. They have expanded the Enhanced a little farther east, but
our Lufkin to Texarkana remains. No changes to threats with wind
and tornadoes most likely. Some of these spin ups could be brief
so be prepared for possible short fused severe activity today. Our
VAD has become more due south over the last few hours and shift to
SW in the mid levels. Speeds are there to mix down with 35-40KT at
2kft and 50KT by 4kft. So far this activity has been moving close
to 40 mph to E/NE.

So the good news is that things should be winding down for us by
around sunset for storms and prevailing winds. We have a timing
graphic on our home page and in slack for our interests to better
understand our thinking. Skies will begin clearing behind the line
with a dry slot, but the cooler air will not be arriving this
evening and overnight. So a large range of low temps is likely
with a few upper 30s around DeQueen and Broken Bow, but still as
warm as 50 degrees in Monroe last to get the chill. The winds will
drive down dew points overnight, so limited fog if any really
with the dry air arriving. Highs tomorrow will range from upper
50s in our I-30 corridor and mostly low to mid 60s, and near 70
for Lufkin and Monroe. High pressure will nose down overnight, but
keep the core and center of the 1024mb over the high plains and
shift into the midWest and Great Lakes as the upper low lifts into
Canada by the end of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The weather will only be briefly cooler with the air mass staying
to our north. We will see the winds veer around to NE for a couple
of normal late March days around 70. However, toward the end of
the week we will veer to E and SE beyond midweek and see due S or
SW at times this weekend. This along with plenty of sunshine and
no secondary cold fronts, will bring back the low to mid 80s for
the weekend. Then due SW winds will make the start of next week
quite warm in the upper 80s. Lows will be normal for midweek with
mid to upper 30s north of I-20 and low to mid 40s to the south. By
Friday the 30s will be gone with a large range of 40s and then
50s and quickly 60s over the weekend. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

For the 25/18Z TAF period, a mix of MVFR and low VFR cigs will be
common across our airspace this afternoon as convection continues
to overspread all TAF sites in advance of a cold front. This cold
front will gradually shift eastward along with the convection by
late this afternoon into this evening with VFR conditions expected
to return to all sites shortly after 26/00Z. Mostly SKC conditions
will prevail through the latter half of the period as much cooler
and drier air works into our airspace in wake of the cold front.
Gusty W/NW winds will accompany frontal passage and any convection
along and near the front this afternoon before decreasing through
the evening and overnight hours, generally ranging from 5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  66  44  67 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  50  69  43  65 /  60   0   0   0
DEQ  37  58  34  64 /  20   0   0  10
TXK  42  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10
ELD  43  64  38  64 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  62  43  65 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  44  63  42  65 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  46  69  45  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151-153-166-167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19


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