931
FXUS64 KSJT 261947
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
247 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Currently, we have a few sub-severe storms affecting parts of
Mason and San Saba counties. These are expected to move northeast
and out of the area in the next few hours. We may continue to see
a few storms develop in our far southeastern counties over the
next couple hours. Once these storms end this evening, expect a
relatively quiet night.

The next upper level low to affect the area is digging southeast
into northern Arizona this afternoon, and will induce lee
troughing tonight, turning winds to the south in our area, and
quickly returning moisture to our CWA. Dewpoint values west of a
Junction to Coleman to Throckmorton line range from around 25F
degrees to 40F. As south to southeasterly flow picks up tonight,
dewpoint values will rise back into the 60s for most of the area.
A few of the high resolution CAMs are showing some storms
developing in the northwestern Concho Valley and western Big
Country tomorrow morning along the retreating dryline. Some of
these storms could be strong enough to produce large hail and
damaging wind gusts as they affect portions of the western and
northern Big Country. Additional storm development may occur
tomorrow afternoon mainly north of a Sterling City to Brownwood
line, and with afternoon heating and destabilization, deep layer
shear greater than 40 knots, and increasing mid level lapse rates,
any of these storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and
possibly a tornado.

Saturday night, as the upper level trough approaches from the
west, we will have a good chance for a line of thunderstorms to
develop in our western counties late in the evening, then move
east through the area during the overnight hours. A Pacific cold
front/dryline will move into the area providing lift. A moist air
mass with dewpoints in the low to mid 60sF, will yield CAPE values
in the 2000 J/kg to 3000 J/kg range, and deep layer shear is
expected to range from 40 to 55 knots. Should the front/dryline,
along with lift from the upper level trough be enough to initiate
storms, they will likely be capable of large hail, gusty winds to
around 60 mph. In addition, a few tornadoes will also be possible
as the storms likely evolve into a QLCS as the move east through
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across our southeastern
counties through the mid morning hours on Sunday before exiting
out of the area by the afternoon. Skies will clear out quickly in
the the wake of the Pacific front with highs in the mid to upper
90s. Monday and Tuesday will be relatively quiet. Showers and
thunderstorm chances come back into the forecast by the middle of
the week we go into west-southwest flow aloft and multiple
shortwave troughs track across the region. Temperatures will
remain steady in the mid 80s to lower 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Currently, all sites are either VFR, or on the verge of VFR, so
will start all sites there. Winds will become west/southwesterly
this afternoon around 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots.
Southerly low level flow around 10 knots will return this
evening, increasing to around 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25
knots after 06Z tonight. The southerly flow will also increase
moisture across the area tonight, resulting in MVFR ceilings
moving back in at most sites between 06Z and 09Z. These MVFR
ceilings will persist through most of the morning at KJCT and
KBBD, but may lift or clear out of KABI, KSJT, and KSOA before 18Z
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  81  56  82 /  10  50  70  10
San Angelo  64  89  55  85 /  10  10  70   0
Junction    68  89  61  87 /   0  20  90  20
Brownwood   66  79  58  82 /   0  40  90  30
Sweetwater  63  85  56  82 /  10  50  50   0
Ozona       65  88  55  85 /  10  10  60   0
Brady       68  81  59  82 /  10  30  90  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20