Text Products for AFD Issued by SJT

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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FXUS64 KSJT 171959
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
259 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across western portions
of the forecast area. Dewpoints ahead of the dryline are in the mid
and upper 60s, with temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, with a
few readings in the lower 90s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
east of the dryline late this afternoon and early evening. If storms
do develop, they could possibly become strong to severe, with a
localized hail/wind threat. The HRRR has been consistent in
generating isolated convection primarily across the Concho Valley by
late afternoon/early evening. Will maintain 20 POPS generally east
of a Coleman to Sonora line to account for this potential. For the
rest of tonight, expect low clouds to develop late tonight across
southern sections, which will linger into the mid/late morning hours
Thursday. Winds will remain light overnight, with mild overnight
lows in the mid and upper 60s.

For tomorrow, a surface cold front will enter the Big Country around
noon. The front is forecast to progress slowly south into portions
of the Concho Valley and Heartland counties by late afternoon, with
the dryline extending south across western portions of the Concho
Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Moderate to strong instability
is expected by peak heating, with SBCAPE`s in excess of 3000 J/Kg,
along with deep layer shear around 30 kts. Thunderstorm development
is possible from the Concho Valley and Heartland southward tomorrow
afternoon into the evening hours. Any storms that develop will have
the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
the main hazards. Temperatures will be well above normal tomorrow,
with highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big
Country prior to frontal passage, to the mid and upper 90s across
central and southern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The main focus for the long term will continue to be the
potential for a widespread soaking rainfall event over the
weekend. Friday will be mostly dry with weak shortwave ridging
overhead. That will be begin to chance, however, as we head into
the weekend. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move
overhead beginning Friday night and continuing into Saturday.
This will provide increasing large scale forcing for ascent. With
a very moist airmass in place (precipitable water values in
excess of 1.5 inches) and the stalled frontal boundary serving as
a surface focus, multiple rounds of moderate to at times heavy
rainfall is expected. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be
possible on Saturday although the severe potential is very low at
this time. WPC does have most of the area under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall on Saturday. While widespread flooding is not
anticipated, some very localized flooding is possible where heavy
rain does fall especially in low lying urban areas. Otherwise,
most of the area should pick up some very beneficial rains which
is certainly welcome given the recent dry conditions. Rain chances
will peak Saturday afternoon and taper off by Sunday morning as
the shortwave trough moves off to the east of the area and upper
level ridging builds in from the west. The remainder of the long
term forecast looks mainly dry at this time.

Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend especially on Saturday
with the expected showers and storms and mostly cloudy skies. Have
undercut the NBM by several degrees for both Friday and Saturday,
with highs only in the 50s and 60s for much of the area on
Saturday. Temperatures will gradually moderate back into the 80s
by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with MVFR
ceilings expected to develop across the southern terminals
after midnight (07Z-09Z). Expect MVFR ceilings lingering through
15Z Thursday, before scattering out to VFR. Isolated convection
is possible across the southern terminals late this afternoon and
early evening, with the best chance near KSJT. Will add VCTS to
the forecast for KSJT for a few hours this evening. Expect light
winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  92  55  66 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  66  98  60  73 /  20  10  20  20
Junction    68  97  63  83 /  10  30  30  10
Brownwood   66  93  58  69 /  10  40  20  10
Sweetwater  66  93  54  63 /   0  10  10  20
Ozona       66  96  63  78 /  10  10  20  30
Brady       68  94  61  72 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
