Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 271430
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1030 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Minor modifications earlier to increase PoPs this morning.
Additional activity is expected this afternoon, with the
main concerns being flooding followed by severe weather,
with hail and gusty wind threats.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 442 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The cold front stalled along the Flint and Apalachicola rivers
around midnight (eastern daylight time). Showers and thunderstorms
(some strong to severe) will continue along this line (Apalachicola
to Albany) and areas to the east through tonight. During the early
morning hours today, the stronger storms will be capable of hail.
The main threats for the day will be extensive rainfall due to
training storms along the front, and gusty winds. During the day,
most of the region will be in a general thunder risk and the SE Big
Bend is in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather. Because of
the concern for training storms, the WPC has placed the eastern Big
Bend region in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall, and
the Southeast Big Bend is in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall with perhaps 1-3" of rain through the day.

Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s during the day
today, and will cool to the low 50s tonight. Some locations in SE
Alabama may cool further to the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...

The front will have worked its way out of the region late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, leaving behind dry air and breezy
northerly winds. The forecast then looks to be relatively quiet as
ensembles show upper level ridging and surface high pressure
building in for the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures,
both lows and highs, for Thursday and Friday are expected to be a
few degrees below they`re seasonal average with a warming trend
expected after that. The trend will be for highs to climb a little
farther into the 70s and by the weekend the upper 70s to low 80s are
forecast. By early next week, ensembles show that we should be
anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs ranging from
the low to mid 80s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms along a stalled front will continue
through the TAF period with IFR to LIFR cigs for areas east of the
ECP to ABY line. The cigs at VLD should be at or around MVFR/IFR
by 12z. Ceilings are expected to slowly lift during the afternoon
with MVFR cigs possible at ABY by 21z, whereas TLH and VLD are
expected to remain at IFR until after 06z Thursday. Vsbys will be
up and down today for most terminals (except for ECP and DHN) due
to heavy rainfall. All terminals except VLD should be reporting
northerly winds this morning (outside of thunderstorms), with the
front passing VLD later this afternoon shifting the winds
northerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area through
today with gusty winds, lightning, hail, torrential rain, and the
potential for waterspouts. The front associated with this is
expected to exit the region later this evening and into the
overnight hours. Increasing north winds are expected behind this
system, with fresh to strong breezes expected west of
Apalachicola. A brief Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
both near and offshore zones as a result. Boating conditions will
start to improve later in the day on Thursday with conditions
improving through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A very slow moving frontal system will bring several rounds of
rainfall to the area through Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
High dispersions will be possible for areas behind the front (FL
Panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA) this afternoon and again areawide on
Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible on Thursday with high dispersions, breezy winds and lower
humidity behind the front. After today`s rainfall, fuels should
still be in good shape.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 442 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

No major chances to the forecast as the slow moving front briefly
stalls and then gradually exits the this evening and into the
overnight hours. The Flood Watch remains in effect for counties east
of the Flint River in GA and then east of the Apalachicola River in
FL, with Gulf County being the exception. Storm total rainfall
amounts, including rain that fell yesterday, should range from 1-3
inches, with locally higher amounts of 5+ inches being possible. The
0Z sounding from our office last night reported 1.83 inches, which
falls in-line the hi-res guidance and ensembles that place PWATs for
the remainder of the event around 1.6 to 2.0 inches. These values
fall along with where the front is expected to stall fall in line
with where Flood Watch is depicted.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  54  73  46 /  80  70   0   0
Panama City   76  53  72  49 /  30  20   0   0
Dothan        76  49  70  43 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        75  51  70  43 /  30  30  10   0
Valdosta      75  55  72  46 /  90  90  10   0
Cross City    76  58  75  47 /  90  80  10   0
Apalachicola  72  56  71  50 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ014>019-026>029-034-114-
     115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ127>131-145>148-156>161.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ750-
     752.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ770-
     772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...KR


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