Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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732 FXUS62 KTAE 010611 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 211 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 PoPs were increased across portions of the western Florida Big Bend this evening, where some persistent showers and thunderstorms have developed. These showers and thunderstorms should diminish in the next 1-2 hours. Outside of this change, there were no other updates needed at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The forecast is on track this afternoon as an upper level shortwave swings through the region. This has brought isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to SE AL and the W FL Panhandle so far today, with the line of storms pushing to the east and southeast. Model guidance has been all over the board with what will happen, though this line should continue its track toward the Gulf. Elsewhere, the guidance varies leaving confidence low. Opted to keep the shower and thunderstorm potential to about 15-30% for SW GA and the W FL Big Bend should any should any other storms try to pop up. If not, skies should gradually clear leaving us with the overnight forecast of fog and stratus. Tweaked the fog for SW GA and the E FL Big Bend to capture more of a patchy fog threat rather than areas of fog as confidence was lower for widespread fog development. This may need to be reverted back depending on what the next set of guidance is. Elsewhere areas of fog was kept for SE AL, the FL Panhandle, and W FL Big Bend. Dense fog could develop in this region, but confidence is too low at this time to hoist any sort of advisory. Any fog or stratus that does develop should dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. Then skies should clear leaving us with a mostly dry day. Some CAMs suggest we could see some sea breeze type showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but again confidence was too low to include at the forecast this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 An H5 ridge building over the Southeast will limit rain chances through the short term period. There is just enough moisture that an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the East Coast sea breeze that will be pushing west Thursday afternoon. Confidence wasn`t too high to get it much west of I-75, but it`s something to monitor on Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday nights will generally be in the middle 60s with highs Thursday in and around 90. It`s also worth mentioning that fog is possible each night thanks to the proximity of the surface high and ample low-level moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Warm and humid conditions are expected the first weekend of May with daytime highs hanging out in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the middle 60s. A series of H5 shortwaves are forecast to move through the Southeast, which will increase afternoon rain chances through much of the period. The strongest shortwave is forecast to swing through Saturday and is when rain chances are highest along and north of I-10. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger Sunday afternoon before drier air takes over early next week as ridging develops over the Southeast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 211 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Areas of fog are expected to develop early this morning with occasional LIFR conditions possible. Fog will lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder of the day. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, but the chance appears too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening hours west of Apalachicola. High pressure takes over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico the rest of the week, leading to more tranquil boating conditions. Light winds are expected with seas generally 2 feet or less into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A line of thunderstorms has pushed into the western FL Panhandle this afternoon. Elsewhere, cumulus and light reflectivities have popped up in SW GA though no reports of rain have come. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early evening, with chances decreasing around sunset. Then drier is expected Wednesday and Thursday with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The flood wave continues to inch down the Suwannee River with Flood Warnings continuing at Rock Bluff near Bell and Manatee Springs and will take a few more days to fall below Minor Flood Stage. No additional riverine flooding is anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 65 91 66 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 83 66 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 65 89 64 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 87 63 89 66 / 10 0 10 0 Valdosta 88 65 91 66 / 10 0 10 0 Cross City 86 64 89 65 / 10 0 20 0 Apalachicola 79 67 80 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Reese