183
FXUS65 KTFX 022258
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
458 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly and wet weather continues slowly across north central and
central Montana, today. Warmer weather is forecast for Saturday;
however, temperatures quickly cool, while active weather returns
to the area on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
5 PM Update...Forecast updated to remove the winter highlights for
North Central and Southwest MT except for the Bears Paw Mountains
area. Scattered snow showers will continue to affect mostly
Central and North Central MT through the late evening hours,
however the main impact will just be reduced visibility. Impacts
to roadways will be limited, thus the advisory has been cancelled.
The rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
1131 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 (02/18Z TAF Period)

The primary concern will be for continued sub-VFR conditions,
primarily across the plains. Although coverage of snow and rain
looks to decrease this afternoon, sub-VFR ceilings look to remain on
the plains through Friday morning. Further south across Central and
Southwest Montana valleys, concerns for precipitation and low
ceilings are lower. A period of rain/snow will be around in the
vicinity of the Helena Valley this afternoon and early evening,
otherwise these areas look to be rather benign this TAF period.
Mountains will be obscured across North-central and portions of
Central Montana. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024/

Note: The forecast area for the National Weather Service Great
Falls Weather Forecast Office includes north central, central and
southwest Montana.

The current weather producer moves slowly across our region,
today. Mountain snowfall continues, while low elevation moisture,
mostly, turns to rainfall. Most moisture falls across north
central and central Montana. With daytime temperatures warming,
I`ve allowed to expire or cancelled Winter Storm Warnings, as well
as, some Winter Weather Advisories. In the case of the Winter
Storm Warning that was in effect for the Little Belt and Highwood
Mountains, I`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory, in its place.
Please, see WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section, below for current
information on winter weather products. Breezy to gusty winds,
continue. Wet conditions, along with cool temperatures, and even
cooler wind chill temperatures, cause hypothermia concerns for
those who may be working or recreating in the backcountry areas.
- Fogleman

A transient/weak upper level ridge develops Friday across the
northern Rockies and shifts east across the area Saturday for a
brief period of drier weather between the current upper level low
affecting the region and the next one moving onto the west coast
this weekend. Temperatures warm some on Friday but remain below
seasonal averages with widespread overnight low temperatures
likely to fall below freezing under lighter winds and clearing
skies Friday night before a seasonably mild and dry day on
Saturday. Multi-model ensembles are in broad agreement to take the
next next upper level low eastward into the Great Basin by Sunday
with southerly flow ahead of this feature importing warmer air
and moisture into the region on Sunday. This will bring an
increased risk for showers as well as thunderstorms from south to
north across the area Sunday afternoon and evening with confidence
in timing and additional details decreasing by early next week,
though an overall pattern featuring above average precipitation
chances is likely, especially for eastern portions of north-
central MT. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  50  26  63 /  70  40   0   0
CTB  27  49  26  59 /  70  10   0   0
HLN  29  55  31  69 /  30  20   0   0
BZN  23  52  28  66 /  20  10   0   0
WYS  17  47  20  59 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  24  52  30  65 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  27  50  27  64 /  50  40   0   0
LWT  24  42  23  59 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls