737
FXUS64 KTSA 151517
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1017 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Small area of showers/storms moving across NE OK this
morning. Brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible, otherwise not expecting severe weather with the
morning activity. Areal coverage should diminish by later
this morning as low level wind fields subside some, so will
not carryover PoPs into the early afternoon. Made a few tweaks
to PoPs and thunder through 18z. Earlier update was mainly for
removing fog mention across NW AR in the zone text. At this
time, will leave temps as they are with ample sunshine expected
to return once morning convection ends.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

With a broad upper level trough sitting to the west through the
end of the week, shower and thunderstorm coverage should continue
to increase through the day Thursday and Thursday night. A
general decreasing trend in coverage is expected through the day
Friday as the system finally lifts northeast of the area, to be
replaced by upper level ridging. While a low end severe weather
threat will extend into Thursday and Thursday evening, the bigger
concern is likely to be the heavy rain and flooding threat,
especially considering the potential for locally heavy rains with
today and tonight`s activity. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be at least 90th percentile in much of the area by
Thursday night, supporting the heavy rain threat, with the
flooding concerns exacerbated by the wet conditions for the past
few weeks.

Seasonably hot and dry conditions should prevail for much of the
upcoming weekend. Highs from Saturday into early next week should
run around 10 degrees above normal in most spots. Both Sunday
night and Monday night may feature parts of northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas being brushed by MCS activity expected to
develop and focus to the north of the Kansas and Missouri borders
on the northern periphery of the ridge. Tuesday and into the
middle of next week, a cold front may bring additional showers and
thunderstorms to parts of the region, with deterministic models
currently differing on whether the front will actually move
through the area or not. This throws some uncertainty into the
forecast for the end of the 7-day period both for temperatures and
the southern extent of any rainfall potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A weak upper level wave has produced a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms across northern/northeast OK this morning. This
activity may impact BVO, TUL, and RVS through the next couple of
hours before dissipating as the wave progresses eastward. Patchy
fog/reduced vsbys will continue to impact XNA, ROG, and FYV
through the next couple of hours before VFR prevails. Otherwise,
anticipate BKN/OVC mid-upper level clouds through the day, with
VFR prevailing at all TAF sites into this evening. Winds are
expected to stay light and mostly variable, turning more southerly
this afternoon. Another storm complex will move into northeast OK
around sunset this evening, with storms progressing eastward
through the night tonight. Though VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the TAF period, brief periods of MVFR/IFR/LIFR
vsbys/cigs will be possible under heavy rain/thunderstorms.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  64  81  62 /  40  70  50  60
FSM   86  64  84  65 /   0  20  20  70
MLC   87  66  82  63 /  10  20  30  70
BVO   82  61  79  58 /  40  80  60  60
FYV   84  62  82  60 /  20  30  30  70
BYV   81  61  81  61 /   0  30  40  70
MKO   84  64  81  62 /  30  40  30  70
MIO   81  61  78  60 /  20  70  60  70
F10   85  63  80  62 /  30  40  40  70
HHW   85  65  82  64 /   0  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67