Text Products for AFD Issued by TWC

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 222042
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 PM MST Mon Apr 22 2024


.SYNOPSIS...Dry with seasonable warm temperatures will continue
through the first of half of the week then turning cooler and
breezy during the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows mostly clear skies with the
exception of some scattered cumulus in Cochise and northern
Graham/Greenlee Counties. Today has been the warmest day of the
year so far for Tucson with the airport hitting 95 degrees, which
is also the first 95 of the year. Temperatures will remain above
normal into Wednesday, although highs will be a few degrees cooler
than today as the ridge currently overhead begins to weaken.

A shortwave trough moves in from the Pacific Thursday ushering in
a slightly cooler air mass. The system will be dry with the main
impact being breezy winds Wednesday and especially Thursday east
of Tucson. Another trough, moving in from the Pacific Northwest,
will move through the region late Friday into Saturday. These two
systems will keep high temperatures at or a couple degrees below
normal Thursday into the weekend. Although  there is still some
uncertainty with how far south the second trough will travel,
which is leading to some uncertainty with how much cooling there
will be this weekend. The second system will keep winds elevated
and lead to a slight chance (15-25 percent) of precip in the White
Mountains Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00z.
SKC across most of SE AZ with the exception of FEW-SCT cumulus
clouds AOA 10-12k ft AGL over the Chiricahua and White Mountains.
Surface winds this afternoon will be around 10-12 kts from the
southwest with gusts 20-25 kts becoming light and variable
overnight. Afternoon surface winds tomorrow with be around 13-15 kts
from the southwest with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with above normal temperatures through the
middle of the week then a cool down as a couple weather systems
move through. Minimum relative humidity values in the afternoon
between 8% and 17% each day through Wednesday then increasing a
few percent into the weekend. Expect typical afternoon gustiness
through the middle of the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday expect strong gusty winds especially east of Tucson as a
weather system moves through. Wind and RH will likely meet Red
Flag criteria for large portions of Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee
Counties Thursday, but at this time fire danger is still not
expected to be high. Friday into the weekend winds remain elevated
but below critical thresholds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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