Text Products for AFD Issued by UNR

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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FXUS63 KUNR 161751
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1151 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery and windy today, with strong north-northwest winds
  expected over the west central SD plains.

- Unsettled, windy, and colder weather expected for the rest of the
  week and into the early part of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Current surface analysis shows strong low pressure over north
central NE, with warm front extending east-southeast across
eastern NE. Cold front extends south across western KS and into
the TX/OK panhandles. Upper level analysis shows low over far
northwest KS, with trough covering much of the eastern Rockies and
Plains. KUDX radar shows decaying MCS across northwest SD with
light to moderate rainfall and areas of gusty winds. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted further east toward central
SD, with isolated/scattered lighter showers from most of northeast
WY to southwest SD. Temps are mostly in the upper 40s and 50s,
with 60s over south central SD. Strong winds earlier over west
central SD have tapered off for the time being, with breezy
conditions in many areas early this morning.

Upper low continues to track east-northeast across NE today and into
northwest IA this evening. Surface low tracks east to northwest IA
by this evening as well. Fairly widespread showers will continue
early this morning from the Black Hills area eastward, with a few
thunderstorms still expected, mostly to the east of the Black
Hills and into south central SD. The heaviest rainfall today will
generally be across areas toward central SD and over the northern
Black Hills as upslope enhanced rainfall develops there this
morning. Probabilities for a half inch or more of additional
rainfall are near or above 50 percent in these areas. Creeks and
rivers will be elevated over the next couple of days and there are
at least some low chances for localized minor flooding where the
heaviest rainfall has occurred. Showers will generally taper off
from west to east later this morning through the early evening on
the back side of the system. Strong winds will be the other
concern today as pressure gradient tightens to the northwest of
the low. The strongest winds will mostly be just to the east of
the Black Hills and across southern portions of northeast WY,
where forecast soundings have 50+ kt winds near the top of the
boundary layer later this morning and afternoon. Have issued high
wind warnings in these areas for some gusts of 55 to 65 mph.
Elsewhere across the southwest SD plains, a wind advisory has been
issued. Will let dayshift monitor whether the advisory needs to
be expanded for later today, possibly into south central SD. Winds
will drop off rather quickly late today and this evening.

The rest of the week looks to be somewhat unsettled and windy at
times, with northwest flow aloft developing across the region. An
upper low tracks across south central Canada midweek, dragging
colder air into the northern Plains. Shortwave energy rotating well
southwest of the low will bring chances for light rain and higher
elevation snow Wednesday into Wednesday night, mainly from northeast
WY to southwest SD. Any snow accumulations look to be pretty light,
up to a few inches over the higher Black Hills. Cool, but drier,
weather will prevail through at least Saturday as Canadian high to
the northwest gradually settles over the region. A weak disturbance
or two could bring clouds and a few showers at times late week into
Saturday, especially over the Black Hills, but many areas will be
dry. Brisk winds can be expected at times through Friday, especially
during the late morning and afternoon hours. As the surface high
slides east of the region later this weekend, warmer air will return
to the area, with above average temps likely by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1151 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong and gusty northwest winds will continue through the day,
especially on the plains to the east of the Black Hills. The wind
will diminish early this evening. Scattered showers, with a few
thunderstorms possible, are expected today, especially around
south central SD. Rain will end from west to east through the
afternoon and evening. Areas of MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS are expected
mainly over central South Dakota, gradually improving to VFR
through this evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ026-032-041-043-
     044-072-074>077.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ030-031-042-
     073.
WY...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ055-058.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...13
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
