Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 251758
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
UTAH...SOUTHWEST COLORADO...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO...

...Four Corners Vicinity...

Overall the ongoing forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the
previous forecast. However, the critical area has been trimmed
across parts of UT with slight adjustments extending into southwest
CO. This is based on latest fuels guidance. Furthermore, the
elevated fire weather area has been trimmed from south-central WY
and parts of adjacent UT/CO, while being expanded across parts of
central CO. This again is based on latest fuels and fire danger
information as well as hi-res wind/RH guidance. Fuels in highest
elevations of central CO likely remain unfavorable, however fuels
status in portions of mid to lower elevations should support
elevated fire weather conditions.

..Leitman.. 05/25/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

...Synopsis...
A slow moving, closed low will begin to fill/open as it continues
eastward on Saturday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
south-southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across the
Southwest United States into portions of the central Rocky
Mountains.

...Northern Arizona, northwest New Mexico, extreme western Colorado,
and southeast Utah...

Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected across the
region as the aforementioned low moves slowly through the West.
Diurnal heating and deep vertical mixing will result in favorable
downward momentum transport across the area, supporting afternoon
winds in the 20-30 mph range, with stronger gusts. Additionally,
minimum afternoon relative-humidity values will fall into the single
digits and teens across a similar area. This combination of hot,
dry, and windy conditions will result in widespread
elevated-to-critical fire-weather concerns. One mitigating factor
for a more widespread fire-weather event will be non-cured fuels
across portions of the higher elevations.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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