869
FXUS64 KCRP 282344
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

 Low chances for Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow

As daytime heating diminishes tonight, so will rain chances across
most of the area except for the Victoria Crossroads where medium to
low rain chances will linger through midnight. As we head into
tomorrow, conditions look less favorable for development due to the
placement of the upper-level trough, however, PWAT values between
1.4-1.5" (around 75th percentile of climatology) and vorticity in
the 700 and 850 mb levels will along with unstable atmosphere
(SBCAPE 2,500-3,000 J/kg) will keep low chances of thunderstorms in
the forecast. If a thunderstorm is able to develop, it will have the
ability to become severe with damaging winds and hail as the primary
hazards. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center currently has all of
South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

Despite winds weakening to under 20 knots this afternoon and
expected to drop under 15 knots tonight and tomorrow, coastal
flooding is expected to continue through tomorrow evening as swell
heights and periods remain elevated. As of this afternoon, Buoy
42019 was reporting swell heights of over 9 feet and periods just a
tick over 9 seconds. Due to observations and webcams from portions of
the bays and waterways showing elevated water levels, added the bays
to the coastal flood advisory for tonight and tomorrow. Similarly,
the rip current risk will also remain high tonight through tomorrow
due to the elevated swells and periods. Please use caution if
entering the water.

Warm temperatures will continue tomorrow with much of South Texas in
the mid to upper 80s while the Brush Country warms into the lower to
mid 90s. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will remain mild
with lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week

- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek

Mid Term (Tuesday through Wednesday)...Not much has changed in the
models since yesterday, with the idea of a warm, moist air mass
(PWAT~1.50") that will stay over South Texas, and especially the
Coastal Bend as sfc dewpoints hover around the lower 70s. So the
main thing will be upper air pattern and the triggers to get
something going. However, the 500 mb pattern is slightly ridged with
small shortwave ripples in the flow. So a good(20-40%) chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday afternoon. Although, the
Low Res Ensemble Forecast brings the chance for rain up to 50%
during the afternoon with the chance of >500J/kg CAPE&>-25 J/kg
CIN&>30knots of bulk shear being 40%, the NBM numbers may be under
doing it. Instability drops as we lose heating, so not expecting
anything overnight, although a shower is possible (10% chance)
overnight and going into Wednesday morning. Wednesday, models would
suggest that the flat ridge would begin to break down and allow for
slight chance pops (15-20%) in the morning, and low chance (15-30%)
in the afternoon, especially in the Victoria Crossroads region.

Winds are expected diminish Monday, and remain steady on Tuesday,
although it could get gusty in the western Brush Country Tuesday
night as the lee trough in northern Mexico tightens up the pressure
gradient. That relaxes the gradient by 12z/Wed only to have the
gradient tighten back up again, but not for most of the forecast
area. Gusts only look to be 25-30 mph, but it will be breezy
Wednesday.

Extended (Wednesday night through Sunday)...Wednesday night into
Sunday is expected to have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms with the PWAT around 1.5 or more (75th percentile for
this time of year). So far nothing out of hand. Weak to moderate
onshore flow will continue the threat for minor coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions currently across the Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads will become predominately MVFR
through the evening hours as clouds fill back into the area.
Clouds are expected to spread west with LRD and COT lowering to
MVFR/IFR after midnight. All S TX TAF sites are expected to be a
mix of IFR/MVFR after midnight with brief periods of LIFR possible
due to CIGs. Patchy fog will also lead to periods of MVFR VSBYs,
except for COT where the fog may become denser toward early Monday
morning where VSBYs may drop to LIFR, as well. Conditions are
expected to improve to VFR by mid to late Monday morning. Isolated
to scattered showers may be possible across VCT overnight into
Monday morning. VCT has the best chance of storms through Monday
afternoon. However, confidence is low that storms will impact the
TAF sites. Therefore, have left out a mention of convection for
the latter part of the TAF period for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Winds are expected to weaken to 15-20 knots tonight and 10-15 knots
tomorrow morning through tomorrow night. Despite winds weakening to
under 20 knots, Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain in
effect across the Gulf waters for seas of 7 feet or greater through
tomorrow morning. Low to medium rain chances are expected to linger
across the offshore waters through tomorrow night. There is a
15-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms daily across the waters
through mid week. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will ramp up
enough for small craft to exercise caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  87  74  87 /  20  30  30  40
Victoria          72  88  71  85 /  40  30  20  50
Laredo            74  94  74  94 /   0  30  10  20
Alice             73  91  73  90 /  10  40  20  40
Rockport          75  83  74  84 /  30  30  30  40
Cotulla           71  93  73  94 /   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        74  89  74  89 /  10  40  20  40
Navy Corpus       75  83  74  84 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...TE/81