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000
FXUS64 KJAN 260534
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Rest of Tonight...Moisture continues to pool across the CWA this
evening, as a frontal boundary resides in the vicinity of the
Highway 82 corridor.  This boundary has been the focusing mechanism
for scattered showers this afternoon and evening. However, this
activity has predominately stayed north and out of the forecast area.

For tonight, quiet weather will continue to reside across the area.
Lows will be slightly warmer than last night as they fall into the
low and middle 60s.  Clouds will continue to increase from the west,
with some patchy fog possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi
toward day break Friday.

The ongoing forecast is currently in good shape.  I`ll make some
minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on
current trends.  Otherwise, no major changes will be made on this
evening`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The rest of today and tomorrow...Warm and mostly calm conditions
are expected for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening.
A system just north of the CWA could bring some isolated showers
and a rumble of thunder across the Hwy 82 corridor. Otherwise,
partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 80s will continue
through the afternoon. By this evening, dry conditions are
expected areawide, with cloud cover increasing overnight.
Overnight lows will remain in the 60s. Patchy fog and low clouds
will also be possible in the southeast tonight into tomorrow
morning.

By Friday, mostly dry conditions and temperatures in the middle 80s
will persist throughout the CWA. A boundary looks to remain stalled
over the Middle Mississippi Valley, while to our southeast, a
surface ridge will continue building into the CWA. Rain chances look
to remain just northwest of MS, but we cannot rule out a light
shower in SE AR and NW MS tomorrow afternoon. /AJ/

Friday Night through Thursday...The long term period will start
off with quiet and dry conditions as global guidance continues to
highlight a ridge axis maintaining its strong presence over the
eastern half of the CONUS. At the same time, a 997mb sfc low in
the Central Plains will continue to push northeast towards the
Ohio River Valley region heading into early Saturday morning. The
ridge axis axis will help deflect most shortwave trough energy to
the northwest of the forecast area for us, with some rain chances
possible on Saturday across part of the Delta. No changes have
been made to the Limited wind graphic for Saturday and Sunday.

Storm chances will begin to increase by Monday morning/afternoon as
southerly flow aloft helps build up moisture from the Gulf ahead of
a surface cold front. Furthermore, several of these storms will have
the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall at times thanks
to deep layer moisture circulating around the retreating ridge and
moving along a huge fetch of warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic
waters. The threat for strong to severe storms will be low heading
into the next work week as the deep layer shear and instability will
remain west of our forecast area. By Tuesday evening, a stronger
ridge will start to build over the Mississippi Valley Region as the
aforementioned cold front shifts east out of the forecast area giving
us a short break from the rain. Isolated showers and storms will
make a brief return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday with quiet
conditions expected on Friday.  /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Some
patchy fog and/or low stratus development will be possible at
namely KHBG and KPIB towards day break. This will result in a
brief lowering of flight categories to at least MVFR status
between 09-13Z. After sunrise and warming ensues, both will
quickly erode and a return to VFR flight categories is expected.
Winds will be breezy from the south on Friday and sustained
between 10-15 knots, with gusts around 25 knots possible at times,
and only a slight drop off is expected during the evening. /19/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  85  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      65  85  63  83 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     68  86  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   66  84  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       68  86  65  85 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    68  86  65  83 /  10  10   0  20
Greenwood     67  85  66  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

CR/AJ/19/EC