626
FXUS62 KJAX 061356
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
955 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The current forecast was on track with little change needed for the
update. The 12z JAX sounding showed mid level lapse rates of only
5.2 C/km, but with cooling aloft associated with shortwave trough
moving in, should see something closer to 5.5 to 6 C/km this
aftn/evening, possibly a bit steeper over inland southeast GA. Storm
motion still forecast to be weak at about 5 kt. So, heavy rainfall
and gustier downburst winds expected in the stronger storms. Highest
forecast instability in pockets, mainly near sea breeze boundaries,
estimated to be up to 1500-2000 J/kg, aided by dewpoints in the
upper 60s and highs today in the mid to upper 80s. Overall, only
slight tweaks to the POPs and highs today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...through Tonight...

Quiet conditions thus far as high clouds begin to increase ahead pf
the upstream shortwave eastward across the Southeast today. Despite
the high clouds, patchy fog development remains possible until
daybreak across the Suwannee Valley and far inland areas of SE GA.

Diurnal heating will be initially delayed by cloud cover but highs
will climb into the upper 80s and to near 90 once again today. This
will yield sufficient daytime instability and support a mix of
scattered showers and t`storms along the east and west coast sea
breeze. Storm motions will be slow once again today, elevating the
localized flood threat. The corridor of highest coverage of
convection will be between the I-75 and Highway 301 roadways. A
secondary focus will be along the St Johns River where sea breeze
and river breeze interact. Potential for strong wind gusts up to 50
mph will also be possible with the more robust pulses - likely along
merging outflows. Like the last several days, daytime convection
will fizzle after sundown and fade away before midnight. Lows will
generally be in the upper 60s but the coastline will likely hover
near 70. Cloud cover will clear to the east and promote the
potential for radiative cooling and patchy fog development Monday
night across the Suwannee Valley.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Convective developments will become more inhibited on Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern
through midweek. Diurnal showers and storms developments for
Tuesday and Wednesday will be most likely along the afternoon sea
breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures will
reach up into the lower to mid 90s through midweek with overnight
low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over
inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast. Early morning
patchy to locally dense fog developments are possible through this
period, with areas west of the I-95 corridor as most likely to be
affected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

Initially dry weather conditions will give way to showers and
thunderstorms by the end of the week as a short wave ahead of an
advancing cold front moves into Georgia and northeast Florida.
Timing and positioning of frontal boundary for the weekend is
showing some discrepancies between forecast models at this time.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s for the latter portion of
the week with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels
before the weekend. Cooler temperatures are possible for Saturday
and Sunday, depending on the placement of the cold front boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR cigs at SSI for another hour or so due to flow off the Atlantic
and narrow cumulus cloud band. Otherwise, mainly southerly flow,
moist enough conditions, and daytime instability should enable
some scattered showers and storms to form along the sea breezes
and gradually push inland. Reasonable confidence to upgrade
PROB30 convective groups at JAX and VQQ to TEMPO groups, but at
this time lower confidence on detailed flight impacts. The
convective activity should be on a downward trend after 00z and
ending most locations by 04z. Sfc winds will initially be south
about 4-8 kt and begin turning to the southeast this afternoon for
the coastal TAFs with the sea breeze around 10 kt, then back to
the south during the late evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridge will gradually shift south through midweek with
offshore winds developing. Evening southerly wind surges with lead
to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until a cold
front arrives a passes Friday.  Offshore winds will increase Friday
ahead of a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. Brief
period of strong winds in the wake of the front may require Small
Craft Advisory headlines Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk at area beaches through Tuesday. Risk
will lower as winds shift offshore Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG
95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  92  69 /  40  30  10   0
SSI  85  70  87  70 /  20  20  10   0
JAX  89  67  92  68 /  30  20  10   0
SGJ  87  68  90  69 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  89  66  92  66 /  50  30  20   0
OCF  90  67  92  67 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$