668
FXUS66 KLOX 111622
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
922 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...11/912 AM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures. Widespread night and morning low clouds
are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases.
Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are expected
through Sunday, then slight cooling is likely each day through
next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...11/921 AM.

***UPDATE***

No big changes in the overall pattern and forecast next several
days. Expecting the marine layer to be a dominant feature through
the period and clearing to near the coast each day. Marine layer
depth this morning was around 2000 feet in the LA Basin and
sloping to just under 1000 feet along the Central Coast with some
dense fog there. May see some lowering tonight as rising heights
following the departing upper low warms the upper levels and in
turn pushes the top of the marine inversion down. Expecting more
dense fog along the Central Coast as a result.

***From Previous Discussion***

Look for an early return of the low clouds tonight to the cst/vly
areas that experienced clearing. Even stronger onshore flow on
Sunday will keep the low clouds going. Higher hgts, however, will
likely squash the marine layer out of some of the vlys which will
allow for warming there. The rising hgts will also bring further
warming to the mtns/interior which will end up 5 to 10 degrees
above normal with plenty of upper 80s and lower 90s.

The ridge moves off on Monday. Hgts fall slightly and sfc
pressure gradients remain about the same. The capping inversion is
weaker so there should be better clearing. Max temps will change
little from Sunday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...11/105 AM.

Long range mdls and ensembles are in fair agreement through the
xtnd period. Almost all solutions show some sort of troffing over
the state through the period although there is a fair amount of
disagreement on the axis position and its tilt. Do not think this
will be of much consequence in the middle of May. Good agreement
that there will moderate to strong onshore flow to the east and
moderate onshore flow to the north. Look for a persistent May Grey
pattern with slow clearing and perhaps no clearing at some west
facing beaches. The strong onshore gradients in the afternoon
will bring breezy conditions to the mtns and far interior perhaps
flirting with low end wind advisories. Max temps will cool Tue and
Wed and then level off at the end of the week. Max temps will
exhibit a split personality with the csts/vlys coming in 2 to 4
degrees blo normals and the mtns and far interior running 4 to 8
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1546Z.

At 1500Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3000 feet with a max temperature of 20 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Good confidence that clearing
today will be similar to ydy (Friday). Flight cat transitions may
be off by +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chc of SCT
conds 22Z-01Z tomorrow afternoon. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Good confidence that VFR
transition will occur after 17Z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...11/227 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. This evening for this southern outer waters and again
Sunday through Monday night for all outer waters, there is a
50-70% chance of SCA winds. Then, SCA conditions are not expected
through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through at least Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception
will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there
is a 20% chance of SCA wind this evening, and a 30-40% chance of
SCA winds Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Cohen/Munroe/Rorke
MARINE...Munroe/Cohen/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox