032
FXUS61 KOKX 101118
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
718 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further
south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving
offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes with this update as the rain moves across the area
today. The rain will have some moderate pulses at times,
especially across the western 2/3rds of the area this morning.
The main question is how far east and for how long of a portion
of the day does the rain get into northeastern sections of the
area as low level ridging attempts to fend off the progression
of the rain. It will be a cool and wet day with cloud cover and
an onshore wind out of the ENE. This will result in temperatures
being a good 10 degrees or so below normal. A few places in NE
CT may reach 60 where a break in the rain is likely for the
afternoon and where there may be some thinning of the clouds.
The breeze will be noticeable closer to the coast.

For tonight look for some pockets light rain for the evening,
otherwise the column is expected to gradually dry out. Rainfall
totals should end up around a quarter of an inch across far E and NE
sections, and closer to a half inch and up to three quarters of an
inch across far western locations. Look for mainly dry conditions
across the area closer to and after midnight. Clouds will thin out
and breaks develop. The only question is can some patchy fog form
with a wet ground and if at least some partial clearing can take
shape for the second half of the night. Thus have thrown in some
patchy fog for the more rural portions of western areas.
Temperatures will get a few degrees below normal tonight if the
partial clearing develops. Looks for lows to mainly be in the lower
and middle 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend should start off dry and rather pleasant, albeit a
bit cool through at least the early afternoon on Saturday.
Temperatures will average a bit below normal with an onshore
wind off the colder ocean. Most places should get into the lower
and middle 60s for daytime maxes. Getting closer to evening
look for clouds to begin to increase from the west with an
introduction of slight chance of showers across far western
sections before day`s end.

For Saturday night look for a good deal of clouds further west, with
more clouds getting further east as the night progresses. Went with
consensus guidance with respect to PoPs with chance to slight chance
PoPs from west to east. With the light onshore flow continuing ahead
of a weakening frontal boundary look for temperatures to be a few
degrees below normal with lows around 45 to 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A shortwave will begin to exit Sunday morning. Low pressure may pass
offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back
over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much
surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher
probabilities of showers across the western half of the area. The
atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs will
primarily be in the mid/upper-50s.

There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat
ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger
into a portion of Tuesday, leading to a dry stretch with increased
sunshine. With an approaching low to the west and an exiting high to
the east Monday evening/night, south winds could become breezy with
most 00Z showing a 35-45kt LLJ developing, likely aided by a
southern stream upper-level jet shifting northward over the area.

Models have come into better agreement on a southern stream
shortwave that moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards
the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal
system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle
Atlantic. Based on the timing from 00Z guidance it appears the low
passing to our south will give us the best chance of rain early
Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in, afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to our south as it travels east this
morning through the day Friday. Weak high pressure returns
Friday night into Saturday morning.

Almost all terminals have dropped to MVFR. A few have now
dropped to IFR, with others expected to follow suit shortly,
with the likeliest IFR at city terminals, though it may only be
occasionally IFR. Improvement to MVFR is expected this
afternoon then back to VFR sometime in the evening. Rain/showers
will continue through much of Friday, clearing by the evening.
Rain may not be persistent and may come in waves or on-and-off
again showers.

East winds increase to around 15kt with gusts 15-20kt. Winds back
more NE over the morning into Friday/Friday evening and diminish.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR categories in TAFs may only touch IFR on occasion.

Low confidence on timing of return to VFR Friday.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions take shape across all waters today with
gusts at 25 to 30 kt. For tonight sub small craft conditions
should return to the non ocean waters, with small craft seas
likely remaining on the ocean for the majority of tonight. Sub
small craft conditions are expected with seas closer to 4 ft on
the ocean for much of this weekend. South winds may increase
Monday evening/early Tuesday, but currently keeping ocean waters
just below 25 kt gusts. Ocean waters may briefly reach 5 feet
during this time frame.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding continues Friday night, but coverage will be
less than last night. Have maintained coastal flood advisories for
the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens,
along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester. Have chosen
based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and
ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn,
Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones. Statements which were
previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern
Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels
have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor
benchmarks.

Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could
be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise
this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come
to an end later in the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/BR
SHORT TERM...JE/BR
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...