Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
195 FXZS60 NSTU 070107 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 207 PM SST Mon May 6 2024 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite observations together with lightning cast imageries show clusters of thunderstorms within the area. These thunderstorms are likely associated with the convergence zone over the area. A high pressure system centered southeast juxtaposed to a low pressure system to the southwest creates a convergence zone in the area, keeping unstable conditions over the islands. Model data together with the latest upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (07/00Z) shows the aforementioned convergence zone remaining stationary in the area through at least Thursday. This will likely keep moisture and gentle north-northwest winds for this time frame. However, model data shows the aforementioned low pressure system exiting the region by Thursday night, decreasing winds to a variable breeze on Thursday night through Friday. By Friday night into the weekend, a broad high pressure system to the southwest will generate moderate to fresh trades Saturday night through the new week. This feature is likely embedded with passing showers for this time frame. Therefore, expect numerous showers with possible thunderstorms and a gentle north to northwest breeze tonight through Thursday, showers decreasing to scattered with fresh east-southeast winds for the weekend into the new week. && .Marine... Manual observations of seas at the break of dawn showed waves reaching the roads near the coastline. Observations beyond the reef was more calm and serene. However, showing on the latest model data is a long period (>15 seconds long) swell from the south. These long periods are indicative of much higher surfs and strong rip currents. Hence the issuance of the high surf advisory earlier this morning for mainly the south and west facing shores through at least Tuesday. Model solutions are showing this swell retreating to the south-southeast as the winds becoming a gentle breeze late Tuesday throughout the week. Nonetheless, models are showing another set of long period south swells reaching shorelines by at least Thursday. Additionally, moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected for the long term forecast period. Thunderstorms in the area will likely elevate seas and winds nearby. Thus, the advisories for high surfs and small crafts will remain in effect through at least Tuesday. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen