881
FNUS53 KAPX 051930
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...Critical/near-critical RHs Monday...

.DISCUSSION...Clear/sunny skies will continue through Monday, allowing for
efficient warming and mixing after sunrise -- leading to expected
critical/near-critical RHs across most interior areas of northern
Michigan Monday afternoon. Weak winds in place will allow for lake
breezes to push inland beginning early in the afternoon, raising RHs
behind its passage. Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid
70s Monday afternoon.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-060815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
330 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the east
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (381).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 2 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (662).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.19 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy frost until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (315).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (425).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.11 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-060815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
330 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 3 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 21 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 12 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (401).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........67-72 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier...except 13 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (605).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.24 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-060815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
330 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler...except 6 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 11 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (452).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........68-73 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (38).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (678).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.31 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (449).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (645).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.16 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

DJC