742
ACUS03 KWNS 071913
SWODY3
SPC AC 071913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains
on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the
eastern U.S.

...Northern Plains...
An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday,
with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down
late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border,
and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin.

During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to
central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a
plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the
initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form
near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with
widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing
localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant
hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating
hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft.

...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas...
An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and
into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far
south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and
instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering
clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However,
the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability
developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the
later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through
evening.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2025

$$