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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171741 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

More dry, warm, and breezy to windy conditions forecast
today and Thursday. The exception will be northeastern NM Thursday
will a backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures from CO.
This frontal boundary surges through all of eastern NM Friday, and
moreso Saturday bringing a sharp cool down and potential for fog
Saturday morning. A few showers and a thunderstorm or two will be
possible Saturday afternoon in the Rio Grande Valley if enough
moisture spills in with this cold front. Temperatures moderate
across eastern NM Sunday, warming further to start next week. Areas
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will mostly be unaffected by
these changes, staying warm, dry and breezy.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Zonal flow will strengthen today in the wake of a weak shortwave
trough. Surface low pressure deepening along the Front Range with
warm advection and deep mixing will allow west to southwest breezes
to continue over northern and central NM today. It will be very dry
as well with humidity values falling into the single digits in many
areas. Skies will be clear with perhaps some patchy cirrus entering
the area by late afternoon. Winds will trend lighter tonight with
quickly falling temps thru the evening. A backdoor cold front moving
into northeast NM tonight will bring a period of gusty north winds
with much higher humidity and cooler min temps. Some low clouds are
also possible around Union County Thursday morning. This front will
move southwest into more of eastern NM thru Thursday afternoon with
much cooler temps compared to today. The latest NBM temp percentile
stdev is high along the Caprock which suggests disagreement with how
far southwest the cold front will progress. In other words, there is
high bust potential with temps somewhere along the frontal gradient.
Meanwhile, central and western NM will remain very dry, warm, and
breezy with increasing high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A notable change to the weather pattern arrives into
eastern NM for the long term period, highlighted by cooler,
cloudier, and wetter weather. A backdoor front that will be hung-up
in northeastern NM Thursday will surge south and west up to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain Friday morning. This first push
will bring a nice uptick in moisture and a drop in high temperatures
back into the 60s and 70s for eastern NM. Areas along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley will be unaffected by this frontal boundary
except where it may briefly spill into the RGV through the gaps of
the central mountain chain Friday morning. This boundary undergoes a
secondary surge westward pushing through the gaps of the central
mountain chain more firmly, producing an east canyon wind at Santa
Fe and Albuquerque Friday night through Saturday morning. More
abundant low-level Gulf moisture will accompany this surge,
increasing the likelihood for low clouds and fog developing along
and east of the central mountain chain Saturday morning. This low
cloud deck is likely to persist across eastern NM much of the day
Saturday, limiting any airmass modification and warming. Forecast
high temperatures are in the 40s and 50s for much of eastern NM, 15F
to 25F below normal.

Some global model solutions are favoring a sufficient spill of
moisture into the Rio Grande Valley, bringing Td`s into the 30s to
near 40. This will be enough to allow for 750-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE in
the Rio Grande Valley by noon Saturday. Warmer surface temperatures
Saturday afternoon in the RGV, relative to the eastern plains will
be capable of breaking any capping inversion and a stray isolated
thunderstorm is possible from Taos through Santa Fe and ABQ to
Socorro Saturday afternoon. Not all model solutions are picking up
on this and there may be too much dry mid-level air as well that
could end up shunting any convective fun Saturday afternoon. Areas
along and east of the central mountain chain will generally favor
drizzle or mist under the aforementioned persistent low cloud deck.
More substantial airmass modification will occur across eastern NM
Sunday as winds shift southerly and the cloud deck finally begins to
break. Forecast highs Sunday moderate 10F to 15F warmer from
Saturday, back into the 60s. A few showers will be possible over
eastern NM Sunday for a few lucky spots.

Warmer and drier conditions return to start next week. A weak upper
level trough crossing NM combined with weak surface level moisture
intrusions into eastern NM may be able to produce isolated afternoon
thunderstorm activity as the exception.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Gusty wly and swly winds expected this aftn, with peak gusts btwn
20 to 30 kts expected. Winds will taper aft sunset. A backdoor
front will descend into the ern plains overnight, bringing a wind
shift and increased moisture. The front is expected to arrive with
its nly wind shift in and around KTCC aft 18/10Z and to KROW aft
18/12Z. While VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout
the TAF period most areas, extremely lcl MVFR cigs may be
possible in and around extreme nern NM and the CO border aft
18/10Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
TODAY...

A weak shortwave trough exiting the area today will keep west to
southwest breezes in place across much of northern and eastern NM.
Very low humidity with above normal temps and gusty winds will lead
to an area of near-critical fire weather from around Clines Corners
to Las Vegas and Santa Rosa. Confidence is not high enough on the
spatial and temporal coverage to warrant a Red Flag Warning today.

A backdoor cold front will then shift south into northeast NM on
Thursday with much higher humidity and perhaps some low clouds. This
front will surge west to the central mt chain for Friday with even
higher humidity and more clouds. Central and western NM will remain
warm, dry and breezy both days with a few hours of marginal critical
fire weather possible. The front is expected to shift west into the
Rio Grande Valley Saturday with briefly higher humidity and gusty
canyon winds. Eastern NM may even see some wetting rainfall during
this period with excellent humidity recoveries. Dry air will move
back into central NM Sunday then into more of eastern NM Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  39  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  71  32  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  71  37  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  33  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  69  36  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  74  33  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  72  37  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  75  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  72  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  78  33  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  44  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  64  31  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  70  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  65  42  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  62  32  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  62  25  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  71  32  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  70  37  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  40  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  71  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  75  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  43  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  83  41  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  80  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  40  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  81  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  82  41  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  76  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  80  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  84  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  45  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  74  42  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  74  39  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  35  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  71  39  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  73  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  73  43  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  77  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  36  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  77  35  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  78  37  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  40  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  79  42  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  77  43  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  84  44  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  45  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  46  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  84  49  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  86  47  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  47  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  90  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  50  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  48  83  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...12