533
FXUS65 KABQ 052110
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Windy and dry conditions will persist through midweek. This will
lead to an extended period of high fire danger for much of northern
and central New Mexico. A cold front moving through the area tonight
into tomorrow will lead to markedly cooler temperatures Monday.
Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday, only to fall back below normal
Wednesday through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms enter the forecast on Thursday through the
weekend, favoring northern New Mexico before expanding southward
and eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Upper level closed low currently centered over northeast NV this
afternoon will continue to trek east through the Central Rockies
tonight and Monday. The combined jet core (Asian Pacific and
subtropical jets) on its southern periphery will move over the
northern two thirds of NM tonight with another wind maxima moving
through, slightly farther south, on Monday. Strong to very strong
south to southwest winds will continue for much of the forecast area
overnight as a result. Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind
Warning for the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Bartlett/Johnson
mesas and Raton Pass areas late tonight into Monday morning.
Critical layer near mountain top level could result in mountain
waves crashing to the lee of the eastern sub range peaks. Lower
valley and basin locations should be able to decouple from the
strong winds for several hours Monday morning, but they will be
quick to ramp back up behind the surface cold frontal passage as
winds aloft remain strong through the day and into Monday evening.
Mainly isolated rain with snow showers above 6,500 feet or so are
expected to move into far northwest and north central NM after
midnight tonight, lingering until around sunrise or so. Cooler air
will move in behind the frontal passage with areas in western and
central NM cooling high temperatures on Monday 5 to 15 degrees F
compared to today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

As the 534dam H5 low whisks northward into the far northern Great
Plains, a tight pressure gradient drapes itself over northern and
central NM. The 120 kt H3 jet`s position favors CO Tuesday, but a
stout swath of 55 kt H7 winds hug the northern mts in the
afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee-side low deepens to 989mb, setting the
stage for perhaps the windiest day of the stretch. The strongest
winds will favor the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mts and their
adjacent highlands in the afternoon. The upper low continues its
dance around the Dakotas Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing
winds to remain elevated overnight. The low finally disengages and
pushes eastward on Wednesday, with cooler air following in its
wake. Winds will still be breezy to windy on Wednesday but not
nearly to extent of Tuesday`s winds. A secondary piece of energy
breaks off in the low`s departure Wednesday night, oscillating
over the Great Basin. This will offer a reprieve to the prolonged
amplified winds and critically dry conditions. Cooler air and an
influx of modest moisture will give rise to showers and
thunderstorms Thursday, favoring the northern mts that afternoon
and expanding southward and eastward on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

South to southwest winds will increase areawide this afternoon.
Winds aloft increase further this evening and overnight, keeping
winds strong through the early morning hours Monday. A wind shift
will also take place behind a mainly dry surface cold front moving
from northwest to southeast through NM tonight. The potential
continues for strong downslope winds to work their way down the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains at times tonight as
a stable layer near mountain top layer sets up and helps bring
wind momentum downward. Isolated rain with snow showers above
approximately 6,000 feet move into northwest and north central
areas after 06/06Z. VFR condtions return to all areas after 06/15Z
Monday, but winds are forecast to ramp up quickly behind the front
during the late morning Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY UNTIL 10 PM FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM AREAWIDE DUE TO
STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 11 PM AREAWIDE DUE TO
STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

An expansive closed low moving east through the Central Rockies
tonight and Monday will continue to result in widespread critical
fire weather condtions through at least Tuesday and most likely
through Wednesday. Strong south to southwest winds will continue
overnight with a mostly dry cold front passing through the forecast
area. Expect a wind shift late tonight into Monday morning from a
south to southwesterly direction to westerly direction behind the
cold front. West winds are then quick to kick in late Monday
morning, continuing through Monday evening before diminishing
somewhat Monday night. Tuesday continues to look like the peak day
for critical fire weather conditions during the next week with
minimum relative humidity in the single digits just about areawide
for a good portion of the day. Winds decrease on Wednesday but
remain strong enough to result in critical fire weather condtions
for much of the forecast area. A backdoor front remains on track to
put at least a temporary end to the critical conditions Thursday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for north
central and northeast NM Friday and for much of the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  62  34  71 /  40   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  24  57  24  65 /  70   5   0   0
Cuba............................  32  58  31  69 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  29  63  28  71 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  32  59  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  33  64  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  35  63  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  42  69  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  38  64  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  35  75  30  77 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  77  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  24  51  25  59 /  60   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  40  59  39  68 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  39  59  39  69 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  34  52  34  61 /  20   5   0   0
Red River.......................  28  49  26  57 /  10   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  51  22  59 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  33  59  27  68 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  37  58  35  67 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  44  67  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  40  61  39  70 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  65  36  74 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  70  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  71  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  73  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  72  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  47  75  39  83 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  46  71  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  73  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  47  72  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  73  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  44  66  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  46  71  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  80  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  42  65  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  41  65  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  67  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  62  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  43  67  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  68  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  54  75  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  67  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  43  62  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  43  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  45  65  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  43  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  54  72  41  79 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  50  68  40  76 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  55  75  41  83 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  71  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  75  42  84 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  79  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  57  82  44  87 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  78  42  85 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  89  49  92 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  78  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  52  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106-
109-120>124.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ101-
104>106-109-120>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Wind Advisory until 2 AM MDT Monday for NMZ202-205.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227-228.

High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday for
NMZ213>215-223-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...33