850
FXAK67 PAJK 081345
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
545 AM AKDT Wed May 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...Gale force front pushed its way into the panhandle
overnight bringing enhanced winds to the outer coast and some
locally heavy rain to parts of the southern panhandle with
Ketchikan airport reporting 0.67 inches of rain over a 3 hour
period. Overall rainfall should diminish with a transition to
post frontal showers through the day Wednesday before the next
system arrive tonight into Thursday morning. This next system is
expected to have less wind impacts, but be more of a rainmaker.

While winds across the inner channels should begin to slacken from
south to north throughout the day Wednesday before picking back up
again, though not as strong, with the next system Wednesday
night. No adjustments made to the marine forecast for this period
with winds still expected to only reach around 30 kt across the
gulf aside from a potential barrier jet developing briefly near
the Fairweather grounds early Thursday morning. Rainfall will
pick up in intensity over the northern half of the panhandle Wednesday
night based upon Integrated Vapor Transport Forecasts with values
between 500 to 700 kg/ms. While some snow mixing is possible at
higher elevation highway such as White Pass overnight during the
heaviest precipitation, accumulation will likely be minimal or
short lived.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term period, we will expect to
see very wet weather across the northern and central panhandle.
Areas from Sitka northward to the Northeast Gulf coast near
Glacier Bay are expected to see the heaviest precipitation from
this event. Current rainfall estimates with this system have 1 to
2 inches of rain falling during this event. While this amount of
rain is a lot for this time period and could break daily
precipitation records, no major impacts are expected with the
drier conditions we have had as well as rivers starting at lower
flows. The southern panhandle will get in on some of the rain as
the main band shifts to the south Thursday night into Friday
morning. But amounts across the south are expected to remain lower
than across the northern panhandle. After this system moves
through, we will see a brief break across the panhandle as high
pressure moves across the gulf for Friday and Saturday. This break
will be short though as the next system will be pushing through
the gulf and into the panhandle starting Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. By the time we get to the start of next week, the
active weather looks to continue with onshore flow remaining in
place for SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...Front moving through the panhandle Wednesday morning.
Ceilings a mixed bag with roughly half locations reporting 1200 to
2500 feet and about half 3000 to 4500 feet. Some locations have
reduced visibility due to the rain but primarily above 3 miles.
With the front pushing through early this morning gusty winds in
place over some inner channels, so local winds shear for some TAF
sites / especially the southern ones / and maybe turbulence near
terrain to impact flights.

&&

.MARINE...Highest winds and seas from overnight Tuesday and
should be starting to diminish after midnight across the gulf and
after 3 am for the inner channels. Strong W flow to 30 kt will be
felt across the gulf on Wed in the wake of this system. A second
system moving into the area late Wed night into Thursday will
bring more small craft to near gale conditions for the gulf
waters. The inner channels will not be as affected by this second
system, but some S winds to 20 kt are still possible especially in
the northern inner channels Thursday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>036-053-641>644-
     651-652-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....ABJ
AVIATION...Bezenek

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