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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 150821
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
421 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures quickly warm after sunrise this morning. Dry conditions
are expected through at least the early afternoon with minimum
relative humidities falling to 30-35%. Southwest winds will average
around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms is then expected later this afternoon and evening, with
the best chance after 4 PM. Not as dry Tuesday afternoon with an
isolated shower or two possible.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (106200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 120 in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   4   3   7   11  16  23  39  39
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   20  20  40  40
Temp............70  75  79  82  84  85  86  86  84
RH..............49  43  39  35  34  33  32  32  36
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.11  12  12  12  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   10  13  13  12  12  15  17  20
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............15  31  50  63  71  82  102 120 120
Haines index....5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10  22  35  46  54  65  81  98  106
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then showers and thunderstorms likely early in
                    the evening. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph decreasing to 3 to 7 mph
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northwest 2 to 5 mph overnight shifting to the
                    north 8 to 12 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (64300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................88 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........52  52  57  57  52  50  44  38  32  35  38  40
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  60  60  50  50  30  30  10  10  10  0
Temp............83  79  75  72  69  67  66  65  63  62  61  61
RH..............38  45  52  59  66  73  75  78  84  87  90  87
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   4   3   2   2   1   1   2   2   3
20 FT wind gust.12  11  8   6   5   3   3   2   2   3   3   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.17  13  9   7   7   6   3   2   2   5   8   12
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   5
ADI.............88  9   6   5   3   3   2   1   1   2   3   5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64  27  3   3   2   2   1   1   1   2   3   4
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east 9
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (32600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 to 47.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........39     36     41     46     52     57
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     20     20
Temp............60     60     67     73     75     77
RH..............87     84     61     46     41     36
20 ft wind......N 3    NE 4   NE 6   E 7    E 7    E 7
20 ft wind gust.5      6      11     12     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1000   2100   2900   3600   3200
Transport wind..NE 15  NE 21  NE 17  E 13   E 10   E 9
LVORI...........5      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............7      26     45     46     45     36
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8      18     31     32     32     25
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...WRAY
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410808.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org