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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191302
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
802 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

As of the latest 07Z observations, light northeasterly flow is
keeping temperatures slightly below average with values as low as
mid 30s for portions of the northern Panhandles. With sct to
nearly ovc high clouds that will be common throughout the day
today, thanks to H500 zonal flow advecting mid level moisture into
the southern High Plains ahead of our next system, high
temperatures today will be below average. High temperatures will
range from the lower 60s in the eastern Panhandles to upper 60s
in the western Panhandles, where the sun may peak through the
clouds from time to time keeping the western Panhandles slightly
warmer. Light easterly sfc flow tonight will keep cooler temps for
the Panhandles with low temperatures tonight ranging from the mid
30s in the NW to mid 40s in the SE.

Starting around sunrise tomorrow morning, rain chances will move
into the Panhandles. Monitoring closely a H500 trough with its
main axis moving northeast across NM and then moving into SW KS by
tomorrow night. The more pronounced moisture advection will advect
from the Texas Hill Country into west Texas and the Panhandles. If
more organized rain and/or convection develops further south of
the CWA, this could limit moisture transport. However, broad lift
downstream of the main H500 trough axis should provide a decent
chance for rain at some point tomorrow across all of the
Panhandles. With that said, the better moisture axis return will
bring the higher probability of rainfall tomorrow to areas along
and line from Channing to Borger to Miami and points south,
especially the I-40 corridor. High temperatures tomorrow will
range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the main system exits the
region tomorrow night with H850-500 subsidence to the backside of
the main system with light winds, temperatures will drop to near
freezing, especially in the NW Panhandles. Cloud cover may limit
more widespread sub freezing low temperatures, but will have to
watch trends closely to see if this changes. Low temperatures
tomorrow night will range from near freezing in the western
Panhandles to lower 40s for the far SE TX Panhandle.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper level ridging returns to the area Sunday with northwest flow
aloft. This will help daytime temperatures warm back into the 60s
after an abnormally cool April day on Sat. The ridge builds even
more over the area Mon bringing warmer daytime temperatures in
the 80s across the northern combined Panhandles with mid to upper
70s to the southeast. This temp difference will be from the
orientation of an expected LLTR creeping into the northwestern FA
from AZ/NM. At the same time an upper level shortwave trough is
to dig into the Dakotas and MN. This trough is progged to send
some ripples in the flow aloft down the Great Plains. Depending on
the strength of some of these perturbations some showers will be
possible across the far north eastern combined Panhandles Mon
night. This system in the Northern Great Plains and Upper
Mississippi River Valley is also expected to send a weak cold
front into the combined Panhandles early Tue morning keeping temps
in the upper 60s to the north and mid 70s to the south.

Confidence is not very high Tue onward. However, moisture presence
along with possible perturbations aloft will bring around a 20 to
30 PoP for parts of the FA Tue night through Thu. Have stayed
with NBM values for now. Thu could be interesting as a leeside low
develops in eastern CO from a shortwave H5 trough swinging up
from southern CA into UT. The surface low will create a surface
trough that ultimately forms a dryline somewhere over the area on
Thu. This dryline could potentially bring some severe
thunderstorms to the area Thu afternoon depending on the
progression of the dryline and whether there will be a cap in
place. The GFS has the dryline dissecting the combined Panhandles
during the middle of the afternoon, mixing east through the
evening and stays east of the Panhandles Fri. The EC has the
dryline mix east then retreat back into the Panhandles early Fri
morning. The position of the dryline will determine if the far
eastern Panhandles see any PoPs for Fri afternoon. For now the NBM
only has a 20 PoP for Collingsworth County.

Thu appears to be the breeziest day driven by the pressure
gradient of the lee low and is also looking to be the warmest day
with highs well in the 80s.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 758 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions continue across the panhandles and at all terminals
through the afternoon hours. Later today a weather system will
bring rain showers and lower clouds to the panhandles. Initially
these lower clouds and rain showers remain VFR but overtime it
could degrade down to MVFR. There is a small chance that
thunderstorms may also form with this system including the
overnight hours. Winds will slowly shift from the SE to the E as
this weather system moves into the southern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  40  48  37 /   0  60  80  40
Beaver OK                  64  36  53  34 /   0  30  40  20
Boise City OK              64  36  48  32 /   0  50  30  30
Borger TX                  67  42  54  39 /   0  50  70  30
Boys Ranch TX              67  41  50  38 /   0  60  70  40
Canyon TX                  62  39  47  37 /   0  60  80  40
Clarendon TX               61  43  48  39 /   0  60  90  50
Dalhart TX                 65  36  47  32 /   0  60  50  30
Guymon OK                  63  36  51  32 /   0  40  40  30
Hereford TX                65  40  48  37 /   0  70  80  40
Lipscomb TX                63  41  52  38 /   0  30  50  30
Pampa TX                   62  42  50  38 /   0  50  70  40
Shamrock TX                62  43  51  39 /   0  50  80  40
Wellington TX              62  44  50  40 /   0  60  90  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98