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000
FXUS64 KAMA 182250 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
550 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The winds remain out of the north this afternoon and evening
moving colder air across the panhandles. While the winds remain
gusty for the afternoon they are slowly weakening and should cease
gusting no later then sundown. The arrival of colder air will
cause the overnight lows Thursday into Friday reach the mid to
lower 30s but still remain above freezing across much of the
northern panhandles. The southern panhandles will be a bit warmer
in the upper 30s to low 40s. For the northern panhandles these
temperatures are around what would cause frost, however expected
overnight cloud cover should prevent this from occurring.
Regardless it would be best to protect plants now as this weekend
will be cold and the chance for frost is not zero. A brief period
of calm weather will linger over the panhandles Friday morning to
early afternoon ahead of another weather system. The next system
is expected to arrive by later Friday bringing moisture to the
panhandles. The overall trajectory of the moisture favors the
southern potion of the panhandles. This moisture will allow for
rain showers and even some isolated thunderstorms. There is still
some uncertainty in exactly where this moisture will track so the
amounts could vary from barely nothing to a couple tenths to a
high amount of .75 in. Currently the lower side of that estimate
seems to be the most likely scenario. THe overall dynamics with
this system are on the weaker side so only weaker general
thunderstorms are anticipated. Otherwise this system will keep
cooler air over the panhandles with highs remaining in the 50s to
60s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cooler temperatures and rain chances will continue through the
beginning of the long term forecast. Warmer, near average,
temperatures return early next week with continued chances for
showers and/or thunderstorms.

A H300 disturbance should be located over eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico at the beginning of this long term forecast.
Weak forcing out ahead of the feature combined with some low to
mid level moisture should lead to light rain showers or
thunderstorms across portions of the Panhandles. Given the lack of
moisture depth in the mid to upper levels, currently expecting the
precipitation to remain light with totals generally around a half
inch or less, with the highest amounts for the southeastern Texas
Panhandle. The main wave should move across the Southern High
Plains late on Saturday. Some lingering rain showers or storms
will be possible into Sunday morning, but rain totals after
Saturday will likely remain very light. Highs on Saturday will be
the coldest of the next 7 days with most locations staying in the
40s, which is around 20 to 25 degrees below average for this time
of year. Light winds and the colder temperatures will remain
across the Panhandles on Saturday night. Near freezing to just
below freezing temperatures are looking more and more likely for a
majority of the CWA so frost and/or freeze products will likely be
needed on Sunday morning.

Going into next work week, model guidance has been inconsistent on
the temperature side of things. In general, temperatures will
return to near average or slightly above average with highs in the
70s to 80s. Mainly zonal flow returns to the southern CONUS during
the middle part of the week. There are still models suggesting
weak shortwaves embedded in the flow may provide enough lift to
generate some showers or thunderstorms during this time frame.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Easterly winds around 10 knots tonight will gradually become more
southeast at 10 to 15 knots during the morning hours of Friday.
Skies are expected to remain VFR. However, cigs may get down to
around 4,000 feet Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                39  61  40  48 /   0   0  70  80
Beaver OK                  36  62  37  52 /   0   0  30  50
Boise City OK              35  64  35  47 /   0   0  40  40
Borger TX                  41  66  42  53 /   0   0  50  70
Boys Ranch TX              40  66  40  50 /   0   0  60  70
Canyon TX                  38  61  39  48 /   0   0  70  80
Clarendon TX               41  60  42  48 /   0   0  70  90
Dalhart TX                 34  64  36  48 /   0   0  60  50
Guymon OK                  35  62  36  51 /   0   0  40  40
Hereford TX                39  63  40  49 /   0   0  80  80
Lipscomb TX                39  62  40  52 /   0   0  40  60
Pampa TX                   39  61  41  50 /   0   0  50  70
Shamrock TX                41  61  42  50 /   0   0  60  80
Wellington TX              41  61  43  50 /   0   0  70  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15