Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system is bringing clouds and showers to the area
through Thursday morning. Dry and partly sunny conditions are
expected for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool. The upcoming
weekend features seasonable temperatures with a chance for
scattered rain showers on Saturday into Saturday night, with
dry and partly sunny weather returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

325 AM Update

Main concerns on the near term focused on where rain will setup
today, tonight and again on Thursday. Latest CAMs showed a
rather narrow band of rain developing/expanding northward near
or just east of Binghamton by the mid-morning hours. There
remain subtle differences in the exact placement of this rain
band, so took a blended approach. Will need to take another look
with the sunrise update to see if the position of this rain
band changes; for now have Binghamton under chance PoPs much of
the day, but not very far off to the northeast-east-southeast we
have likely PoPs to lower end categorical PoPs for periods of
rain much of the day. This includes locations such as
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Honesdale, Hancock, Walton, Delhi,
Monticello and Oneonta. In these areas up to around a quarter
inch of rain is expected today. Further back to the north and
west of Binghamton, especially in the Finger Lakes and Syracuse
metro area today will be mainly dry, with partly sunny skies and
very warm temperatures between 60-65 degrees for a high.
Temperatures will be held down into the mid to upper 40s for
areas east of Binghamton that see the persistent rainfall.

The area of rain over the east gradually becomes lighter this
evening, but a narrow frontal boundary brings renewed chances
for scattered showers across the Finger Lakes and Central
southern tier toward sunset. These showers could be convective
in nature along the front, but at this time, no thunder is
expected as forecast CAPE is very low (<50 J/Kg). As this front
moves east it weakens and the showers with it taper off. There
should be a lull in the rain activity overnight, with just
slight chances for showers or drizzle as the winds turn more
northerly or northwest behind the boundary. Cooler with lows in
the 30s to around 40.

A wave of low pressure then moves north along the North Carolina
and Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Models have come into better
agreement with this 00z cycle that the rainfall should remain
east of Binghamton...with chances for rain really ramping up
over the southern Catskills and eastern Poconos/Pike County in
NE PA. For this area there are still likely to low end
Categorical PoPs for periods of rain much of the day on
Thursday. Uncertainty does remain in exactly where this rain
band will set up with the coastal system. Rainfall amounts are
close to a quarter inch along our far eastern border zones in
Sullivan and Pike counties...tapering off fast to the west. It
now appears even the Wyoming Valley region could squeeze in a
mainly dry day on Thursday...although it will be very close
here, so did keep in a chance for rain in case it wobbles west.

From Binghamton, north and west it will be dry and partly sunny
on Thursday...but cooler with a slight breeze. Expect northwest
winds 7 to 15 mph, and highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s...which
is actually very close to average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
255 AM Update...

Light rain and snow showers may linger in far eastern portions of
Sullivan and Pike Counties as a frontal system exits the region
Thursday night. Otherwise, high pressure will build in following the
departure of the front and bring quiet weather during this period.
Fairly strong northwest flow will result in blustery conditions.
Sustained winds of 20 mph and peak gusts of 30+ mph are expected
Friday and Friday night. While temperatures will be in the 40s during
the day on Friday, it will feel like the 30s thanks to the stronger
winds. Overnight temperatures both nights will fall below freezing
for most, but with the blustery winds Friday night, wind chills in
the teens will be possible by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
255 AM Update...

A weak clipper system will pass southwest the region this weekend.
There continues to be uncertainty how far east rain showers will be
as this system will have to overcome drier air. For now, low chance
PoPs remain in the forecast for Saturday night. Snow will be
possible in the higher elevations across the region which may result
in very light accumulations. High pressure builds back in by Sunday,
cutting off any lingering showers that may remain during the morning
hours. Dry conditions will persist through at least Monday. A
surface low in the Central US will move east early next week and
bring the next best chance for rain to the region. Model guidance
continue to differ with track and timing of this system, so
similarly to the previous forecast, the NBM was favored and PoPs
were capped at 70%.

Temperatures will trend slightly warmer through early next week with
most in the 50s Sunday and Monday as colder air lifts north. Tuesday
is expected to be cooler with rain showers present. Lows will follow
a similar trend, going from 20s/30s to 30s/40s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 AM Update

It is still VFR for most of our taf sites at this time. However,
AVP is already MVFR fuel alt, as lower level clouds have pushed
in from the south/east here. MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions
are expected to continue here for the rest of the day and early
evening...then potentially falling to IFR here with low clouds
and mist after 28/02z or so. AVP will see periods of rain,
steady at times between about 13z and 00z today.

BGM is still VFR, but expected to have tempo MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs
develop before 10z early this morning. BGM will be on the edge
of an MVFR cloud deck and rain shield through the morning hours,
but looks to lift back to VFR during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The CIGs then settle back down to MVFR Fuel Alt
by 00z, and fall even further to IFR after 28/03z as a cool
frontal boundary stalls over the area and winds shift westerly.

ELM is still VFR, but CIGs could fall into the MVFR/MVFR Fuel
Alt category over the next several hours and remain there until
mid-morning. By late morning and afternoon a return to VFR
conditions is expected here, as it will be west of the rain
shield and clouds look to scatter and/or lift up to a mid level
deck. As the cool front approaches and winds shift northerly,
it will usher in lower CIGs back to at least MVFR this evening
(after about 28/01z).

ITH looks to remain mainly VFR today, with a sct to bkn cloud
deck between about 030ft and 080ft expected much of the day.
Again, as the front pushes through about 01z this evening, MVFR
fuel alt CIGs are expected here through the end of the taf
period, along with a few scattered showers.

SYR looks to remain mainly VFR today, with a sct to bkn cloud
deck between about 060ft and 110ft expected much of the day.
Again, as the front pushes through about 00z this evening, MVFR
CIGs are expected here for several hours, along with a few
scattered showers. Also there will be LLWS here through around
14z this morning; with southerly winds around 35kts at 2k ft agl.

RME remains mainly VFR today, but can`t rule out some tempo MVFR
CIGs as a few rain showers pass by early this morning.
Otherwise, it will be sct to bkn clouds between about 035 to
050 ft much of the day. After about 28/01z CIGs settle back down
to MVFR here through the end of the taf period.

Outlook...

Late Tonight..Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR west. Restrictions possible in rain/mist
for AVP, BGM and perhaps RME. (Low to moderate confidence)

Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A weak clipper system could
bring rain showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...MJM/TAC


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