807
FXUS61 KBGM 291031
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
631 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary boundary across the region today will move
northward as a warm front early Tuesday before the main cold
frontal passage Tuesday night. These features will likely bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. High
pressure builds in for the middle of the next week followed by a
cold frontal passage at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Added some showers to the forecast with the sunrise update through
mid morning along and north of NY Thruway corridor as a batch
of showers moves east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise forecast on
track.

A stationary frontal boundary will lead to a fairly large
temperatures spread today with highs ranging from the low 80`s
in the Wyoming Valley to the mid 60`s in Oneida county. This
will be in large part to stubborn low clouds and fog along and
north of the warm front which may take till this afternoon to
completely burn off in spots.

Still can not rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm through
tonight with the frontal boundary. However, the most widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity looks to be Tuesday afternoon
and evening. PW values are trending a little higher into the
1-1.5 inch range coupled with Parallel corfidi vectors
indicating some potential for training. Fairly fast storm
motions should keep any flash flood threat fairly isolated.
Still a few heavy downpours could produce local urban and small
stream flood issues.

A narrow CAPE axis modeled by both the HRRR 00Z and Hi-
res NAM 00z of 1000-1500 J/KG surface CAPE is somewhat
concerning Tuesday afternoon and early evening. This given
about 30 knots of 0-6KM Bulk shear is modeled as well across
central NY and NE PA. This would allow for some clusters of
thunderstorms to produce a few microbursts (from a limited
amount of mid-level dry air) and have some organization as they
push southeast. Coordination with the SPC there is some concern
about the instability advection into the region. This may be
somewhat similar to an event not long ago at this stage where
the models may be overdoing the moisture advection and
instability. That will be something to monitor over the next day
or so.

Lows tonight look to be on the muggy side only getting down to
around 60 with highs in the 70`s again on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update...

Upper level trough with a surface low passes through the region
Tuesday night. This provides enough moisture and lift to allow rain
showers to continue into the overnight hours. Instability parameters
begin to fall off soon after sunset, although can`t rule out the
chance of thunderstorms lasting into the early part of the evening
as elevated instability lingers over northeast PA. Temperatures will
remain relatively mild Tuesday night with lows ranging in the
50s for most of the region.

A few rain showers linger into Wednesday morning over the eastern
portion of our region as upper level trough slowly shifts eastwards.
Ridge begins to build in Wednesday afternoon with a drier air
mass moving in cutting off any remaining showers. Model guidance
agrees with the timing of this system making an exit. Northerly
flow continues for one more night as our region will be on the
front edge of the ridge. Otherwise a calm night is in store with
light winds and temperatures ranging in the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
305 AM Update...

Southerly flow returns to the region on Thursday with high pressure
building in at the surface. Therefore a brief dry period works its
way into the region as ridge strengthens. Rain showers and
thunderstorm chances return Friday evening into Saturday as an upper
trough over the central US begins to advance eastwards.
Regardless ridge remains over our region with a first wave of
moisture advecting into the area Friday night. Second wave moves
in on Saturday setting off another round of showers. Model
guidance begins to diverge for the latter part of the period.
Despite this guidance does hint at another system over the
northern plains swinging into the northeast sometime Sunday
night through Monday. With the ridge in place during most of
this period temperatures will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s
during the day. Overnight lows will remain relatively mild
falling into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Variable conditions likely till about 14Z at all TAF sites with
any restrictions lifting to VFR. Continued MVFR stratus for
most NY terminals till about 15-20Z. Mainly VFR tonight,
watching the potential for another stratus deck to move westward
into KAVP and KBGM as well after 06Z Tuesday.


Outlook...

Tuesday... Any morning restrictions lifting by 16Z. VFR then
some restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms,
between 18Z and 00Z Wednesday. Stratus and fog then possible
after 00Z Wednesday.


Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible,
becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG