Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
993
FNUS73 KBIS 110955
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for 8W...TNC
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
455 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mainly clear skies this morning will become partly sunny this afternoon. High temperatures
will warm into the mid to upper 70s, bringing afternoon humidity values near 28
percent. Light west southwest winds this morning will become a breezy west wind
this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found
tonight. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening, which
may produce some gusty and erratic winds. Humidity will recover to near 64 percent.
West southwest winds will becoming a light northwest wind around 0300 Sunday morning.
This northwest wind will then become north on Sunday. Temperatures will
slightly cool Sunday, although humidity values will be near 27 percent in the
afternoon. An isolated rain shower may also return to the fire area Sunday afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear this morning becoming partly sunny
in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning, becoming
west 8 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25 mph this afternoon.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 25 mph with a few higher gusts.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (148200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (194700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56 70 71 71 68 60
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............72 75 76 77 78 77
RH..............38 33 31 30 28 29
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..16 16 16 16 16 14
20 FT wind gust.24 24 24 24 24 20
Mix hgt (kft)...7.1 8.5 9.3 9.8 10 10
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.24 23 24 22 21 21
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..148 170 195 187 184 184
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2000, then 2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West southwest winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to around 20
mph shifting to the north northwest around 10 mph after 0300.
Gusty and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 20 mph in the evening, then shifting to the north
northwest 10 to 15 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (165800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to very good (104500 knot-ft) late
in the night decreasing to poor (4500 knot-ft)
early in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49 41 39 37 42 43 44 36 32 32 34 27
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............77 75 72 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 53 52
RH..............29 32 37 43 46 50 53 55 59 61 64 63
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W NW NW NW N N N
20 FT wind spd..15 11 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.22 17 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...9.2 6.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W NW NW N N N N
Transp wind spd.21 18 12 10 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 13
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..166 105 9 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain
showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (74100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........22 26 26 37
Weather cov..... S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............50 57 66 68
RH..............63 47 32 27
20 FT wind......N 9G14 N 9G14 N 10G14 N 11G17
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1200 4200 5000
Transport wind..N 12 N 14 N 18 N 17
Haines index....4 4 4 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4 14 66 73
$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Chris Gordon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413711.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL chris_gordon@tnc.org