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000
FXUS64 KBMX 240014
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
714 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

Crystal clear skies are being observed across much of the
southeast following a very chilly morning. Low temperatures this
morning were on the order of 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with
mid 30s to lower 40s observed areawide. Surface high pressure has
shifted to our east, centered over the Southeast Atlantic coast.
Southerly flow has developed over Central Alabama as a result,
which will help temperatures warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s by
this afternoon. An upper level trough axis will pass just off to
our northeast overnight tonight through the day on Wednesday with
a weak surface front moving southward from the Ohio River Valley.
Clouds will increase as the front approaches overnight tonight
through Wednesday morning with warmer overnight temperatures.
Isolated to scattered showers with a few storms can be expected
Thursday afternoon as the front begins to stall close to the I-20
corridor. Additional lift in the form of a weak 500mb impulse
within the northwesterly flow aloft will also aid with convective
development as dewpoints increase into the upper 50s and lower
60s. The best coverage of showers and storms will be along and
west of the I-65 corridor Thursday afternoon, but will remain
scattered at best. Highs Thursday will be tempered across the
northern half of the area due to increased cloud cover, while
lower 80s are expected from Demopolis eastward to Eufaula.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible Thursday
afternoon across mainly the western half of Central Alabama.
Isolated activity may continue into the early evening hours before
diminishing. Made some adjustments to PoPs during this period from
the previous forecast. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made
to daily highs and lows through the extended period. Scattered rain
and storm chances remain possible during the afternoon and evening
hours on Monday, with exact timing to be better defined in the
coming days.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

A stalled front oriented from northwest to southeast will be
located over the forecast area on Thursday, nearly parallel to the
flow at 500 mb. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the
day as the front begins to retreat to the northeast. Warm
advection and embedded upstream small-scale disturbances at 500
mb will be supportive of scattered shower and thunderstorms
particulary Thursday afternoon. This activity should be fairly
short-lived, diminishing during evening hours as a ridge aloft
begins to move in from the west.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to remain in control for Friday
through Sunday, contributing to a rain-free forecast. Eventually
a trough in the Plains should progress eastward on Monday with
increasing rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

Surface high pressure was located east of the area and this
feature was producing southerly winds across central Alabama.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated at most terminals overnight.
Enough low level moisture far south may produce some low clouds
and fog. Added a tempo mention of MVFR vis at TOI around daybreak.
On Wednesday, a cold front moves in from the north. A few showers
and storms may accompany the front, but coverage should be
limited. Mention a prob30 at TCL/EET to start off. Additionally,
VFR ceilings will develop in the 040-070 range by afternoon north.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is in place through most of the week, with just a few
wrinkles. This afternoon, 20 ft winds remain southerly, at 6 to 10
mph, with minimum RH values mainly in the 30 to 40 percent range. A
weak front with very little rain in the form of a few showers/storms
moves through on Wednesday. 20 ft winds will become westerly at 6 to
8 mph, with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Another chance of
showers/storms exists Thursday afternoon, with only modest increase
in coverage compared to Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     45  75  51  78 /   0  20  10  20
Anniston    50  76  53  78 /   0  20  20  30
Birmingham  52  76  56  78 /   0  20  20  30
Tuscaloosa  51  79  58  79 /   0  30  20  30
Calera      51  76  57  78 /   0  30  20  30
Auburn      51  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  20
Montgomery  51  80  59  82 /   0   0  10  30
Troy        49  81  58  83 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...75