180
FXUS65 KBOI 151548
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
948 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Hazy skies and warm temperatures in the low 60s
are being observed across much of the Snake River Valley this
morning, the Ontario airport already reaching 66F as of 9am MDT.
Above normal temperatures with dry conditions are still
expected through Thursday, ahead of a cold frontal passage on
Friday. Winds are anticipated to increase substantially on
Friday morning across much of the area, especially in the Lower
Snake River Plain and Camas Prairie. No forecast updates
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear, except some slight reduction
in visibility in vicinity of prescribed fires over the southwest
Idaho terrain. Surface winds: generally W to NW 5-15 kt. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR and passing high clouds with some hazy skies near the
foothills due to smoke from prescribed burns in the Boise
Mountains. Surface winds: generally NW 4-8 kt, except periods
of light and variable overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Today, anticipate
light winds and mostly clear skies as the upper level ridge
extends eastward across our forecast region. However, the
ridge`s core will remain well to the west, maintaining a cool
northwesterly airflow and keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal. By Thursday, the ridge weakens as a new system
approaches from the northwest. This will usher in increased
southerly winds at the surface, boosting temperatures into the
mid-80s in the lower valleys. Come Friday, expect colder and
windier conditions as a closed low from western Canada moves
southeastward. A potent upper level jet accompanying the cold
frontal passage could support gusty winds, particularly across
the Western Snake River Plain. Current guidance is showing a
40-60% likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH from Mountain
Home through the Western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie by
Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...This weekend will be
fairly mundane as the upper flow, despite a decent gradient, is
mostly zonal. The gradient forcing will keep afternoons gusty,
but below product criteria. Sunday evening a trough north of our
area will support a 15-25% chance of showers in the far
northeastern stretches of Valley County. Monday through
Wednesday model agreement is lacking, but the consensus is that
a period of unsettled weather will begin as a closed low moves
to the west of our area. Temperatures will trend downward, but
still remain near or just below normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JM