Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240934
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
334 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

High pressure ridge aloft now over the Great Basin will be
building into Colorado over the next 24 hours. Overall trends will
be drier conditions as the flow aloft weakens and shifts a bit
more westerly by late today. Expect only a 1-2 degree warming
today as 700mb temperatures rise slightly to around +12c. Not much
moisture to work with today so only a very slight threat of
showers/storms over higher mountains and elevated terrain over the
Palmer Divide. Even that might be too much. No severe storms
expected with low CAPE and very little shear to work with.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

For Friday, the upper level closed low will be into the West coast
of CA with SW flow aloft over CO. Increased ridging will help to
bring 700 mb temps into the +13C range with highs in the upper 80s
over the plains. Conditions will be dry and stable with no
thunderstorm activity expected. These conditions will persist
through Saturday where the warmest temperatures of the week will
occur. Highs over the plains are expected to break the 90 degree
mark with 60s and 70s in the high country. This could be the warmest
day we have seen so far this year for some areas so please take
precautions and always remember to Look Before You Lock!

By Sunday, the upper low will have pushed east into the Great Basin
bringing upper level flow more southerly. Lee side closed lows will
set up over the plains by the afternoon helping to pull in moisture
rich SE flow. An embedded shortwave seen on model QG fields will
move through the region from the SSW sometime on Sunday. At this
time it appears most of the plains will be too stable for much
activity but the mountains and far NE plains near the KS and NE
border could see some isolated storm development by the afternoon.
Main concerns would be gusty winds with dry low levels and an
inverted-V sounding. Highs on Sunday will continue to be warmer than
normal with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

For the start of next week the low becomes disjointed and slightly
stacked. Models differ on the exact evolution of the low center
with he GFS splitting the energy and the EC taking it North into
southern Idaho. Either way, Colorado remains under SW flow with
ongoing embedded shortwaves bringing a chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms to the region. Temperatures will fall closer to
seasonal normals with highs in the upper 70s through Tuesday before
gradually increasing back into the 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018t

Surface low pressure over the Palmer Divide has kept surface
winds from the north and northwest much of the night but winds
expected to shift and weaken more west and southwest towards
daybreak. VFR through tonight with mostly sunny skies, except a
bit of mid level moisture late in the day. No storms expected with
limited moisture and stability available.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Entrekin



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