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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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Spot Forecast for Forsyth ll unit 38...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
353 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Very dry this morning with humidity holding relatively steady through
late morning, bottoming out in the mid teens early afternoon. Mostly sunny
conditions expected through the morning, with a progressive increase in
cloud cover after ~1400.

The wind direction forecast for this morning is highly uncertain, with ~60%
probability of westerly winds, and 40% probability for east or southeast
winds. In any case, 20-ft speeds will be light and below 12 mph. Much higher
confidence in westerly winds prevailing after 1500 or 1600 with a frontal
passage, with gradual strengthening throughout the afternoon. By late
afternoon and early evening, gusts are likely to approach or exceed 30 mph.
Excellent smoke dispersal is anticipated.

Dry conditions are expected for the majority of the day, likely through at
least 1600 if not later. If precipitation materializes late afternoon or
this evening, amounts should be on the lighter side compared to most of the
Front Range, with 24-hr accumulations 0.10-0.20" anticipated (65% chance of
wetting rain >0.10" through Tuesday).

Tuesday will bring breezy west winds, higher humidity, and a chance of light
rain showers.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1200, then partly
                    cloudy(40-60%) until 1500, then mostly
                    cloudy(60-70%). Slight chance of rain showers
                    after 1700.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........15%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph until 0700, then
                    variable up to 5 mph until 0800, then west 6-10
                    mph until 0900, then north around 5 mph until
                    1000, then northeast 6-10 mph until 1100, then
                    southeast 6-12 mph until 1200, then south
                    around 9 mph until 1400, then southwest 9-13
                    mph until 1600, then west 16-22 mph with gusts
                    to around 35 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then 2300 ft AGL
                    until 1000, then 6800 ft AGL until 1200, then
                    11000 ft AGL until 1400, then 12500 ft AGL
                    until 1600, then 7400 ft AGL until 1700, then
                    3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8-13 mph until 0800, then light until
                    0900, then south 10-16 mph until 1200, then
                    southwest 20-25 mph until 1600, then west
                    around 22 mph until 1700, then around 33 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1100, then
                    very good until 1200, then excellent until
                    1600, then very good.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   11  7   8   12  16  48  48  48  57  57  57
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   3   5   7
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5   10  10  20  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  45  49  54  58  60  62  64  64  60  56  52
RH..............29  28  27  26  23  19  18  15  15  18  24  31
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  W   N   NE  SE  S   S   SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   3   6   5   6   8   9   9   9   12  16  22
20 FT wind gust.10  5   9   7   10  13  15  15  15  18  25  35
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.6 2.3 5.2 7.4 9.9 11  13  12  7.4 3.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.12  9   7   10  15  16  20  24  22  20  22  33
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   4   4   20  67  104 168 232 238 206 142 101
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   G   VG  E   E   E   E   VG  VG

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely until 1900.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms until 2100. Snow
                    showers likely.
CWR.................41 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........64%.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 23-29 mph with gusts to
                    around 46 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms until 2100.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL until
                    2200, then Below 1000 FT AGL until 0100, then
                    1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 24-33 mph until 0300, then 32-37 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 1900, then good until 2000,
                    then fair until 2100, then poor until 0300,
                    then fair until 0500, then poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  82  84  85  86  88  89  90  90  91  92  92
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RS  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  60  60  60  70  70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............45  42  40  40  38  39  39  38  38  37  37  37
RH..............41  45  49  49  53  52  52  53  57  58  61  61
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..25  26  28  28  26  25  23  23  24  25  25  25
20 FT wind gust.40  43  46  46  43  40  35  35  39  40  43  44
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.33  32  31  30  28  25  24  28  32  36  36  33
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..128 86  50  26  16  15  19  25  35  43  41  37
SmokeDispersion.VG  G   F   P   P   P   P   P   P   F   F   P

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely until 0900.
                    Rain showers likely until 1200, then chance of
                    rain showers.
CWR.................50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........39%.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 24-30 mph with gusts to
                    around 46 mph.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 30-36 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700, then fair until 0900, then
                    good until 1100, then very good.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  88  84  80  80  80  65  60  55  52  52  52
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RS  RS  RS  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  41  42  44  45  47  48  50  51  52  52  52
RH..............61  61  59  56  52  52  49  46  42  40  39  39
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..29  26  25  24  24  25  25  24  24  25  25  25
20 FT wind gust.46  43  40  39  39  40  40  39  39  40  40  40
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.30  30  30  30  32  33  36  36  36  36  36  36
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26  40  54  69  88  109 126 136 138 132 122 105
SmokeDispersion.P   F   F   G   G   VG  VG  VG  VG  VG  VG  VG

$$
Forecaster...Rodriguez
Requested by...Ty Gripp
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410635.1/BOU
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL William.gripp@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
