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000
FXUS64 KBRO 161751
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature
influencing Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the
period, which will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA.

Meanwhile, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows for
this time of year will also occur. This will be especially true
today, as the approach of a weak cold front produces a downsloping
effect off of the high terrain of neighboring Mexico.

Finally, wind and sea conditions will result in a HIGH RISK of
rip currents at the local beaches today and until around sunrise
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SPC places the upper RGV/RGV Plains in a general thunderstorm
outlook Wednesday night. The NBM has brought in low end convective
chances, just enough to show up in the forecast. Unstable
southwest mid-level flow ahead of NW Mexico short wave trough
will trigger overnight Sierra Madre Oriental convection, some of
which could drift into the upper RGV. Otherwise, a bit of coastal
and inland fog will be possible Wednesday night. The upper RGV is
again in the SPC general thunderstorm outlook for Thursday
afternoon/evening. The cause looks similar to that of Wednesday
night. A weak signal is back again Friday evening. The upstream
trough will lose definition, becoming simple perturbations moving
through the flow, but the time of year is right for the Sierra
Madre based convection.

Aside from the low end thunderstorm threat to the west this week,
not much else will be going on until the weekend. Until then see a
mix of clouds and sun along with moderate winds and warmer than
average temperatures.

The next good opportunity for convection will be on Saturday and
Sunday. Unleashed by a Plains high pressure outbreak, a cold front
will push south into the CWA on Saturday. The mid level flow will
again advertise ripples of energy from the southwest at the base
of a tough over the southern Plains. The result will be a chance
of showers and thunderstorms along the front, increasing in
coverage Saturday night through Sunday, with chances lingering
into Monday. Winds will shift to northeast Sunday morning,
becoming moderate. Some clearing should occur Monday afternoon.
The cooler air behind the front should drop temps down from above
normal to near normal Sunday and Monday, but expect a mild
rebound on Tuesday as high pressure shifts east. Rain amounts
overall will probably not be impressive, measuring in tenths of
inches, which could be generous.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions were taking place at all of the terminals under a FEW-
SCT deck of strato-cu clouds with bases ranging between 2,500-3,200
feet AGL with unrestricted visibilities.

Forecast models suggest that clouds will increase in coverage again
later this evening into tonight with low VFR to MVFR ceilings re-
developing. Given the large amount of low level moisture in place,
there could be instances of IFR ceilings tonight. During the day on
Wednesday, ceilings are expected to be mainly in VFR-MVFR territory.

Winds out of the south-southeast 15-20 kts will gusts to 25 kts or
so during the afternoon hours. With the loss of daytime heating and
decreasing mixing heights, winds will decrease on the order of 10-15
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today through Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory will remain in
effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles
offshore until noon today. Meanwhile, Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution is likely on the Laguna Madre. Afterwards, Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution will likely be needed for the remainder of
the forecast period for the Gulf of Mexico waters, with more
moderate winds for the Laguna Madre.

Wednesday night through Saturday night...High pressure across the
Gulf of Mexico will support moderate southeast winds and moderate
seas through Saturday. A weak cold front is forecast to move
offshore the lower Texas coast Saturday night to Sunday morning,
bringing moderate to fresh northeast winds and a slight chance to
chance of shower with a few included thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             74  88  73  88 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               71  91  71  91 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 75  94  74  93 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         75  97  74  95 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  79  73  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  86  72  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma