Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250828
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
328 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction
Center indicates a cold front bisecting the Lone Star State from
north to south. This front will swing through the BRO CWFA from
west to east today. The most recent KBRO upper air sounding
indicated a precipitable water content of just over 1 inch, and
with a nearly zonal mid-level flow in place overhead, and a surge
of dry air anticipated in the wake of the front, no precipitation
will occur across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today
nor through the entire period itself.

Temperature-wise, above normal highs in advance of the front today
will be tempered to near normal values on Tuesday, with near normal
lows tonight providing brief, refreshingly-cool conditions.

Additionally, the aforementioned surge of dry air, combined with
wind speeds at the 20-foot level, will result in conditions more
favorable for wildfire activity for a portion of the inland BRO
CWFA. Please refer to the FIRE WEATHER section below for further
details.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, produced by the
recent enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent passage of the
cold front, will lead to a High Risk of rip currents at the local
beaches until around sunrise Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

At the surface, a re-enforcing surge of high pressure moves into
Deep South Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cool night is
expected Tuesday night with lows generally in the 50s and light east
winds. Near normal temperatures and sunny skies will prevail on
Wednesday with highs in lower 80s, except for the 70s at the
beaches. A mid to upper level trough will swing over the region on
Wednesday which may lead to a few passing high clouds. Onshore flow
will return by Thursday into Friday as the high pressure across the
western Gulf of Mexico moves farther eastward. Southeast winds will
enhance into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens again
between the high pressure to the east and another low pressure
system emerging from the Rockies. Breezy southeast winds are likely
Friday into Saturday. A wind advisory may be needed for the coastal
counties on Friday and possibly into Saturday. Temperatures
gradually warm Thursday into the weekend with the persistent
moderate to occasionally strong south to southeast flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Veering winds are anticipated at the aerodromes through the next
24 hours due to the approach and passage of a cold front. MVFR to
VFR is also anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Today through Tuesday: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore
until midday today. A cold front will swing through the lower
Texas coastal waters this afternoon, and while additional Small
Craft Advisory is not anticipated to be needed, Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution likely will be needed along the Lower Texas
Coast through the end of the forecast period.

Tuesday night through Sunday...A mainly weak gradient will lead to
light to occasional northeasterly to easterly flow and low to
moderate seas Tuesday night through Thursday. A weak return flow
will begin Thursday night and then the winds are expected to
increase on Friday as the pressure gradient strengthens. Small craft
exercise caution conditions will be likely along the Lower Texas
Coast Friday into the weekend. However, small craft advisories will
be possible on the Laguna Madre during this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Today through Tuesday: A cold front will swing through Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. The combination of winds
at the 20-foot level and minimum relative humidity percentage in
the wake of the front will lead to conditions more favorable for
wildfire activity. As a result, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
will be issued for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  62  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               89  58  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  59  84  57 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         88  56  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  66  74  66 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  61  79  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...66-Tomaselli


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