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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 130932
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
332 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday night...

Another warm day can be expected across the area today as heights
build in from the south and west. Moisture and energy will advect
into western and central portions of the area this afternoon and
evening, associated with an upper low along the California coast.
This will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms (30% chance or less) later this afternoon and
evening. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with the
stronger showers/thunderstorms. At the same time, a weak frontal
boundary will drop into the area from the north this afternoon
turning winds out of the north. RH will be a bit higher across the
north, but temperatures will still be within a few degrees of
yesterday`s temperatures. Temperatures will approach records at
all climate sites, reaching the 70s to around 80 degrees.

Heading into Sunday, the aforementioned upper low will move
inland over California/Nevada, and the ridge axis over the
Northern Rockies will shift east over eastern Montana. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms (30% chance or less) will
once again develop over the mountains in the afternoon, moving out
onto the adjacent plains through the evening. Temperatures on
Sunday are forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest
over eastern areas. Record high temperatures are possible once
again at all climate sites. STP

Monday through Saturday...

The signal for cooler and wetter weather continues for next week,
but uncertainty still remains in the ensemble forecasts this
morning. At this time, the best precipitation potential resides in
far southeastern MT Monday evening into Tuesday morning and along
the foothills and mountains of south central MT Tuesday evening
through Wednesday. Temperatures have also trended slightly warmer
for the event over the last 24 hours.

Monday will be a warm day across the area with highs in the 60s
to lower 70s (degF). During this time, we will be under split flow
with the developing trough to the NW and cut-off upper low to our
south. The low to our south will track close enough to bring
increased precipitation chances (40-60%) to south central and
eastern MT and northern WY during the afternoon through overnight
hours Monday into Tuesday. In far southeastern MT, Gulf moisture
wrapping around the low, combined with decent instability (400-600
J/kg of CAPE), will allow for the potential for thunderstorms, as
well as heavy rain, during this time.

As the aforementioned low moves east Tuesday morning, chances for
precipitation will decrease. By Tuesday afternoon and evening,
the trough to the NW looks to drop into Montana, reintroducing
precipitation chances to the region (30-80%, highest over the
foothills and mountains and lowest from Miles City to Baker). The
western and southern extent of the trough is where the uncertain
remains in the ensemble forecasts. The GEFS introduces lower
heights into western and southern MT which allows for deeper
upslope flow and associated heavier precipitation to occur Tuesday
evening through Wednesday along the foothills and mountains of
south central MT. The ECMWF and Canadian ensembles keep the lower
heights in northeastern MT, limiting the upslope flow and
associated precipitation across the area. This will be the factor
to watch going forward. Right now, the chance for a half inch or
more of liquid Monday through Thursday morning is 40-70% in far
southeast MT and 50-80% over the foothills and mountains.

Temperatures have also warmed slightly over the past 24 hours for
Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Tuesday and lower to upper 40s for most Wednesday and Thursday.
This will limit the potential snow impacts over the lower
elevations. Breezy conditions will also develop Tuesday through
Thursday, with the strongest winds expected over far eastern MT
(wind gusts in the 20 to 45 mph range, strongest Wednesday).
Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain showers west of KBIL will taper off early this morning,
allowing VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites today. This
afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered showers and a weak
thunderstorm or two are expected to develop once again,
potentially impacting KLVM, KBIL, and KSHR. As far as winds go,
expect winds to shift out of the NW mid-day today. Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 044/079 048/071 046/062 037/044 032/047 030/051
    2/T 21/U    24/R    33/R    46/O    34/O    22/O
LVM 077 043/078 044/065 040/057 034/042 028/046 027/049
    2/T 22/T    24/R    24/R    65/O    33/O    11/B
HDN 077 043/080 045/074 046/064 035/045 030/049 028/053
    1/U 21/U    24/R    32/R    46/O    44/O    22/S
MLS 076 044/082 046/073 048/061 035/045 030/045 028/049
    0/U 00/U    11/B    21/N    23/O    33/S    21/B
4BQ 078 044/083 046/073 047/061 035/045 029/045 027/047
    0/U 00/U    01/B    42/R    23/O    33/S    21/B
BHK 078 041/081 044/072 044/061 032/043 026/042 024/045
    0/U 01/U    11/B    43/R    23/O    33/S    21/B
SHR 078 042/078 043/068 043/060 033/041 027/043 024/048
    1/U 10/U    13/R    43/R    56/O    43/S    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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