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000
FXUS62 KCAE 132349
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the southeastern states through
early in the week with resulting dry and warm conditions. The
ridge will weaken midweek as a couple of cold fronts approach
the area. On Friday, a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are
possible as a weak cold front moves through the area.
Temperatures will be above well above normal through most of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface high should shift towards the forecast area tonight,
with winds falling off fairly quickly. I generally think lows
could be in the mid 40s in our cool spots, but should be in the
upper 40s to low 50s most everywhere else. Clear skies will
continue all night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...West-northwest flow aloft continues
across the region with surface ridge centered across Florida and
offshore. Modest increase in moisture with precipitable water
increase to around 1 inch as low-level flow becomes
south-westerly. Warm advection along with strong subsidence
downslope wind component in the afternoon expected so
temperatures will likely to rise into the low to mid 80s. A weak
mid level short wave moves through in evening, so some mid
level clouds expected overnight. Lows near 60 with some clouds
and mixing behind the short wave trough.

Monday and Monday night...Upper level heights begin to rise and
subsidence appears stronger. Some clouds may be focused near the
NC/SC border in the evening and overnight as a weak cold front
drops south from the Mid Atlantic into North Carolina. However
with ridging over the area, any showers should remain north of
the region. Guidance temps consistent with temperatures rising
into the mid to upper 80s (temps well above normal), lows again
around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper heights continue to rise Tuesday, but some mid and high
level clouds still over the ridge especially to the north late
in the day/evening. So another warm day expected, about the same
as Monday. Deep low in the Midwest moving toward the Great Lakes
region Wednesday and begin to fill. Models in good agreement
with ridge over the southeast weakening. Mid level short wave
trough moving through in the evening. Think still too dry for
showers but mid level clouds should increase. Any showers should
be focused in the Carolina Mountains or north of the area.
Ensembles consistent with an anomalously deep upper low over
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast late in the week with
zonal flow aloft/weakly cyclonic flow over the Carolinas. This
trough will drive a weak cold front through the area Friday.
There should be enough moisture/lift for isolated showers or
thunderstorms. Air mass behind the front is not very cold, so
temperatures remain above normal into the weekend and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 24 hr forecast period.

Dry high pressure in place with a building upper ridge on Sunday
should provide VFR conditions with generally clear skies
although some higher clouds may filter into the region Sunday
afternoon in northwesterly flow aloft. Winds diminishing to
around 5 knots or less to start the forecast and remain light
overnight before picking back up from the southwest around 8 to
10 knots through the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$