085
FXUS62 KCAE 060816
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
416 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the early
this week as multiple disturbances move across the region. A
lull in activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing
chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter
half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below
average next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, a shortwave ridge is over the forecast area
with an upper level trough to the west. Upper ridging will move
east of the area today allowing vorticity maxima to move into
the region. This will support rounds of showers and
thunderstorms today with deep moisture still in place. GOES16
derived PWAT values are still around 1.5 inches this morning. As
the air mass destabilizes in the late morning and afternoon we
will see convective activity increase and thunderstorms develop.
The most prominent shortwave troughs is expected to move across
the forecast area in the afternoon. This, along with abnormally
high atmospheric moisture, and sbCAPE values likely between
1000 and 2000 J/kg should lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate that much of the
atmospheric column will be well saturated, which would lead to
the potential for locally heavy rain and flash flooding,
particularly in urban areas or where training occurs. The lack
of dry air aloft and weak shear will limit the threat of severe
weather. However precip loading could still be strong enough
for isolated damaging winds in a wet microburst. Temperatures
are expected to be near or slightly above average during the day
and relatively warm overnight. Despite activity diminishing
through the evening, at isolated showers seem possible into the
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night: A weak and somewhat flat upper ridge
will help to suppress showers and storms for much of the area.
Still can not rule out isolated convection over the northern
Midlands. This area will be closer to a weak surface trough and
passing shortwave energy. In addition, sea-breeze convection
moving inland could bring isolated activity to the eastern cwa
during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be well
above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows
in the upper 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will see similar conditions, but
with a stronger shortwave passing through NC during the
afternoon helping to produce more scattered convection over the
northern Midlands. Moderate instability will exist, but there
should be a warm nose aloft helping to keep widespread
convection at by for much of the area. Even so, an isolated
severe storm can not be ruled out on Wednesday. Highs remain
above normal again, with readings in the lower 90s and lows
around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night appear to be the best period for
strong to possibly severe storms. A cold front will be
approaching the region from the west, and upper heights will be
falling ahead of an upper trough moving southward through the
day. Better shear will also exist through the afternoon, leading
to the potential for more organized activity.

The front will be moving into the cwa Friday morning before
moving through and stalling out off to the south of the cwa
Friday evening. Should still see some shower and storm activity
early in the day before the front pushes deeper moisture south
and better dynamics swing through. Friday night through the
weekend then turn drier and much cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early morning stratus/fog with thunderstorms likely this
afternoon.

Expect a few hours of ceiling restrictions this morning as low
stratus develops over the area. The cloud layer is rather patchy
and could lead to only periodic restrictions at some TAF sites.
Stratus seems more favored than fog given a 25 knot low level
jet, but fog at OGB and OGB cannot be ruled out.

With moisture still high over the area we expect numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the late morning and
afternoon. This will likely lead to restrictions in heavy rain.
However confidence in the exact timing is too low to include
impactful vis restrictions or TS in the TAFs. Thunderstorm
activity will diminish into the evening but convection will
likely linger into the night, even if only isolated. Fog and
stratus once again possible for early Tuesday morning given the
abundant low level moisture.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Morning fog/stratus less likely on
Tuesday and Wednesday with drier air over the region. The
extended will be active, with mainly diurnal convection each
day.&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$