058
FXUS61 KCLE 081138
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through this morning before a weak
area of high pressure briefly builds over the area by this
afternoon. Another warm front will lift north towards the area
tonight as a series of disturbances continue to impact the area
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A thin band of fog has developed along a residual boundary in
Northwest Ohio and some brief dense fog to around one quarter of
a mile will move through Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa counties and
have a brief SPS. Otherwise, clouds are departing to the east
this morning and high pressure should allow for a dry weather
day with above normal temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure centered over the western Great Lakes will continue to
track east, moving a cold front east across the area this morning.
This boundary will stall somewhere south of the area as high
pressure pushes south today. This high pressure will allow for a
period of dry conditions through this evening before the
aforementioned stalled boundary begins to lift north as a warm
front. Along this boundary, increased frontogenesis along with an
upper level shortwave pushing east will allow for the return of
showers and possible thunderstorms to the area, gradually moving
from south to north tonight into Thursday. The low pressure at the
surface is expected to move east across the Ohio River Valley, which
should allow for the entire CWA to remain on the cold side of the
low, ultimately limiting the potential for any thunderstorms to
become severe. The overall track of the low will not be moving very
fast, keeping the potential for showers and thunderstorms through
the end of this period. Some areas may receive locally heavy
rainfall which may result in nuisance flooding, but overall impacts
should remain minimal.

High temperatures today will remain warm in the mid to upper 70s.
Tonight, lows will drop into the low 50s. Thursday high temperatures
will be much cooler with highs only climbing into the upper 50s to
low 60s. The exception to this will be NW OH where an easterly flow
off of Lake Erie will result in cooler temperatures, likely in the
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A trough aloft associated with an unusually-cold air mass for
May 9th-10th shifts SE`ward across the eastern Great Lakes and
Upper OH Valley Thursday night through Friday. At the surface, a
trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and our CWA due in
part to the expansion of relatively-warm lake-modified air as
the unusually-cold air mass advances across the lakes. Periodic
and scattered rain showers are expected due in part to the
following: Moist isentropic ascent preceding the trough axis
aloft; the potential for lake-enhanced precip over and
generally south of Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday morning
amidst weak lake-induced instability over ~55F Lake Erie, a
sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column, and
the seeder-feeder process; and the expectation of self-destructive
sunshine during the afternoon through early evening hours of
Friday. Overnight lows should reach the lower 40`s to 50F around
daybreak Friday and be followed by afternoon highs in the upper
50`s to mid 60`s.

A brief window of fair weather is expected Friday evening as a
narrow ridge at the surface and aloft moves E`ward through our
region and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However,
rain shower chances return to much of northern OH after midnight
as a trough at the surface and aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances begin to overspread that part of our CWA from the
western Great Lakes and vicinity, and moist isentropic ascent
aloft precedes the axes of the shortwave disturbances. Overnight
lows should reach the upper 30`s to mid 40`s in NW PA and the
40`s to lower 50`s in northern OH.

The trough aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances traverse
the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley generally from west
to east and the attendant surface trough affects our region on
Saturday through Saturday night. The trough aloft will reinforce
the aforementioned unusually-cold air mass. Periodic and scattered
showers are expected due to moist isentropic ascent preceding
the shortwave trough axes and the occurrence of self-destructive
sunshine late Saturday morning through early evening. Thermals
associated with the self-destructive sunshine may release enough
surface-based CAPE to trigger isolated thunderstorms. Saturday
afternoon highs should reach the upper 50`s to lower 60`s in NW
PA and mainly the lower to mid 60`s in northern OH. Overnight
lows should reach the 40F to 50F range around daybreak Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Odds favor fair weather on Sunday through Sunday night as a
ridge at the surface and aloft builds E`ward across our CWA and
vicinity. However, subtle shortwave disturbances may ripple
through the ridge aloft and be accompanied by isolated and
occasional rain showers. Afternoon highs should reach the 60`s
on Sunday and be followed by overnight lows in the 40`s to lower
50`s around daybreak Monday. The ridge at the surface and aloft
should exit E`ward on Monday and be followed by the E`ward
passage of another/stronger shortwave trough and attendant
surface trough Monday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible with the approach and passage of the trough at the
surface and aloft. Low-level WAA ahead of the trough`s axis
should contribute to Monday afternoon highs reaching the mid
60`s to mid 70`s. Overnight lows should reach the mid 40`s to
mid 50`s around daybreak Tuesday. Yet another ridge at the
surface and aloft should build E`ward into our region by
Tuesday. A weak synoptic MSLP gradient and sufficient daytime
heating of land surrounding Lake Erie should allow a lake
breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening
and penetrate several miles inland. Sufficient boundary layer
moisture and instability may allow the lake breeze front to
trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs
should reach mainly the 70`s as net low-level WAA persists on
the synoptic scale.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Any non-VFR ceilings in NE OH and visibility in NW OH are
quickly eroding this morning as drier air enters the region with
an area of high pressure behind a weak cold front. The dense fog
around KTOL has already dissipated and some MVFR/IFR at KCLE and
KCAK likely has just an hour or so before dissipating. Clearing
skies and westerly winds will be favored today. The surface high
will pivot east toward evening and winds will veer to the north
and northeast. The warm front of the next system will approach
tonight and bring the next round of rain with non-VFR conditions
likely. Have started some MVFR mentions with the rain but some
refinement will be necessary depending on how well rain covers
the region for late tonight into Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is poised to sweep E`ward across Lake Erie this
afternoon through evening and be followed by a ridge building
from northern ON through tonight. Accordingly, SW`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually to NE`erly. However, the
SW`erly winds are expected to flirt with 20 knots at times over
eastern Lake Erie late this morning through early evening. Waves
trend 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are expected in
eastern Lake Erie late this morning through early evening. Given
these very marginal conditions, refrained from issuing a Small
Craft Advisory.

NE`erly to E`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots back gradually to
NW`erly on Thursday through Friday as a frontal low moves generally
ENE`ward from near the border of central IN/OH to near the Gulf of
Maine and extends a trough over the eastern Great Lakes. Waves of 1
to 3 feet with occasional 4 to 5 footers are expected and a
Small Craft Advisory may be needed, especially on Thursday. A
narrow ridge should move E`ward across Lake Erie Friday night
and cause NW`erly winds to ease to 5 to 15 knots and back to
SW`erly. Waves are forecast to subside to 3 feet or less.
SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected to veer to
NW`erly on Saturday through Saturday night as a trough moves
generally E`ward across Lake Erie. The 5 to 15 knot winds
should back from NW`erly to SW`erly on Sunday as another ridge
moves E`ward across the lake. Waves are forecast to remain 3
feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka