Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 251133
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Key Messages:
- Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory in effect this afternoon
across the west.
- High risk of rip currents today.
A mid to upper level low will traverse the Central Plains today,
pushing a frontal boundary across the area. At the lower levels,
a tight pressure gradient in response to a surface low over the
Southern Plains has maintained strong southerly winds over the
region this morning. Winds are forecast to weaken to more
moderate levels later this morning as a dryline/frontal boundary
approaches the area from the northwest. However, very dry and breezy
to windy conditions will quickly develop behind it, especially
out west, where another round of wind gusts to 40-45 MPH is in the
cards for the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for La
Salle and Webb counties from noon through 7 PM this evening, as
wind probabilities (HREF) of exceeding 40 MPH where between
60-80%. In addition, the Fire Weather Watch has been replaced by a
Red Flag Warning also over La Salle and Webb counties this
afternoon, as the strong winds will combine with very low minimum
RH values to create Critical fire weather concerns (see Fire
Discussion below).
Although the dryline/boundary will move across the area quickly,
an isolated shower/thunderstorm may still impact portions of the
Victoria Crossroads ahead and along it this morning (PoPs <30%).
A few showers have already developed along the boundary early this
morning over portions of the Texas Hill Country. This line will
approach the Crossroads region around mid morning, and exit into
the waters by the afternoon, effectively ending the rain chances.
With a strong southerly flow persisting over the offshore waters
this morning, and taking under consideration buoy 42019 is
indicating very high swell periods (>10 seconds), have gone ahead
and issued another High risk for rip currents today. Conditions
are likely to improve throughout the day as the flow becomes
offshore in response to the passing boundary, but in the morning
the threat will remain High.
More benign weather conditions will follow the boundary tonight
into Tuesday, with the winds gradually diminishing and with
slightly cooler air arriving as a surface high pressure settles
in. After another warm day today with highs in the 80s, overnight
lows tonight are forecast to dip into the 50s areawide. Tuesday
will be a few degrees cooler, with highs ranging from the low 70s
along the immediate coast to the low 80s out west under sunny to
mostly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
We open up the long term period with a broad trough swinging
through the area. At the surface, high pressure will remain in
control for much of the work week. This will keep the majority of
the forecast rain-free. However, if we do our best to find any
sort of hope for rain, we can take a look at the H7 levels on
Wednesday. A H7 vort max is tugged through the region as the main
trough lifts towards the SE US. Forecast soundings reveal a thin
layer of moisture around H7 so it`s possible that we could push
out some isolated activity. However, confidence is very low in
this outcome as the lower levels are very dry. Towards the end of
the work week, the surface high will slide east as upper level
ridging settles in. As a result, onshore flow will return to the
region. Once onshore flow resumes, a warming trend will kick in
with highs bouncing back into the mid 80s to upper 90s by the
weekend. It may be breezy at times Friday through the weekend as
southeasterly flow strengthens as a low deepens over the Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Mostly MVFR conditions are prevailing across area terminals early
this morning ahead of an approaching dryline/frontal boundary.
Conditions are expected to improve from northwest to southeast
through the morning hours as the boundary transitions across the
area with a return to VFR. A few showers will be possible ahead
and along the line, but confidence on precipitation location was
to low to include in the TAFs at the moment. Strong south to
southwesterly winds will shift around to the west and northwest
behind the front today, with gusts up to 35 knots expected at COT.
Across the rest of the sites, winds could gust to 25-30 knots.
Winds are forecast to quickly relax after sunset this evening,
remaining at around 5-10 knots overnight. Clearing skies and VFR
conditions are expected tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
A strong south to southwest flow will persist across the coastal
waters through this morning. An approaching boundary will shift
winds around to the west and northwest in the afternoon with winds
weakening to more moderate levels. Seas however, will be slow to
respond. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect
through 1 PM today over all marine zones, and through 4 PM
offshore. A few showers will be possible ahead and along the
boundary this morning. A weak to moderate offshore flow will
develop tonight, and persist through Tuesday. A weak to moderate
east-northeasterly flow will continue through mid weekend. Winds
will shift around to the southeast through the day Thursday and
continue through the weekend. Winds may increase to moderate to
occasionally strong levels at times this weekend over the offshore
waters as a surface low deepens over the Plains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
A dryline/boundary will move across the region today leading to
strong winds and low minimum RH values across portions of the
Brush Country. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for La Salle
and Webb counties from this afternoon through this evening as
Critical fire weather conditions are expected. Wind gusts as high
as 45 MPH and RH values as low 10-15% are expected in the area
under the Warning. Conditions are expected to improve tonight as
the winds decrease. Very low RH values are in store out west again
tomorrow, but winds will remain light enough to negate additional
fire weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 88 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 81 51 75 50 / 20 0 0 0
Laredo 87 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 86 53 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 84 59 77 59 / 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 84 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 87 55 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 87 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ229-239.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ229-239.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ231-
232-236-237-250-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ270-
275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...ANM/88