429
FXUS64 KCRP 030815
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the
  western Brush Country this afternoon through late this evening

Strong conditional instability will develop across Central and
South Texas this afternoon with 00Z HREF mean surface based CAPE
ranging from 2000-4000 J/kg. This conditional instability in
conjunction will deep layer shear exceeding 30 knots will result
in an environment favorable for organized deep convection.

Increasing low level moisture convergence is expected to result in
deep convection developing along and/or just east of the Sierra
Madres by late this afternoon. Hodographs of forecast wind shear
will support supercells that will move east to southeast through
the evening hours. There is a low chance that these supercells
will make it into the western Brush Country late this afternoon
into this evening. The primary hazard will be large hail with
forecast soundings returning numerous analogs associated with
significant hail greater than 2 inches in diameter. However, a
well mixed sub-cloud layer (characterized by DCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg) will also be supportive of damaging wind gusts.
Finally, the 00Z HREF guidance for this evening has maximum 3 hour
QPF amounts greater than 5 inches with a 10% chance of QPF over 3
inches within 25 miles of points across the Brush Country. Current
flash flood guidance over the Brush Country ranges from 3.5-5.5
inches over 3 hours. Therefore, in addition to the severe weather
threat, there will be a very low chance for isolated flash
flooding this evening.

The low chance for severe weather is expected to end by midnight
and give way to another muggy night across all of South Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Message:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

A mid-level shortwave (the last of several this week) will move
across the area on Sunday. The amount of moisture it has to work
with is questionable as drier air will be starting to filter in
through the low levels (above the surface) and decreasing PWAT
values. The cap also appears to hold on through much of the day.
That said, will maintain low (20-30%) pops through the day Sunday.

Next week shifts to a drier and warmer pattern with south to
southwesterly flow in the lower levels.  This will
result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande
by Tuesday and approaching 110 degrees by Thursday.  Elsewhere
temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid-
upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness
will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for
vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep
heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values
could exceed 110 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into the morning hours across the
region. Ceilings will then improve to MVFR/VFR by the afternoon
hours. There will be a low chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across South Texas this afternoon and evening.
While the highest chance of convection will be across the western
half of the CWA, confidence in impacts at either COT or LRD was
too low to include a PROB30 with this forecast package. MVFR
ceilings are once again expected to build into the entire region
during tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the upcoming
work week. This will result in persistent seas of 3-6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  75  88  75 /  10  10   0  10
Victoria          86  73  87  73 /  20  10   0  10
Laredo            98  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  10
Alice             92  74  91  74 /  20  10  10  10
Rockport          84  75  84  75 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla           97  75  95  76 /  20  10  10  20
Kingsville        89  75  89  75 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       85  77  85  76 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH/91
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...BF