Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 261847
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
247 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Mild with periods of light rain through Wednesday night
-Turning breezy & cooler with rain ending Thursday into Friday
-Showers to start the weekend; drying out for Easter Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hires model data shows band of rain continuing to weaken as it
slowly pushes eastward toward the Allegheny Plateau through this
evening. Rain coverage trends become rather spotty tonight
before consolidating over south central/southeastern PA by
daybreak Wednesday. A mild night ahead with temperatures in the
mid to low 40`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the
region tomorrow. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of
this feature will keep the rain showers in forecast with max
POPs across the eastern portion of the forecast area. Wednesday
will be the warmest day of the week with max temps in the
50-60F range and lows. A few showers linger into Wednesday night
with the main focus for steadier rain shifting into extreme
southeast PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All medium range guidance develops an area of low pressure on
the stalling front over the southeast coast, then tracks it
northeast late this week. Model guidance has trended east with
the track of this storm over the past few cycles, with a 40%
chance of greater than 0.50 inch in 24 hours ending 18z Thu
confined to far eastern Lancaster county (higher probs east of
there).

Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up
to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel
Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale
subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri
afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values
near 30% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures
in the 50s and marginal fine fuel moisture may be limiting
factors.

A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a
somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week
associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours, but all
guidance does indicate that MVFR ceilings will begin to work
their way in across the Lower Susquehanna Valley into the
late morning. At the same time, high clouds will continue to
move in from the west and will gradually lower through the day
with MVFR conditions expected for western sites by the late
afternoon/early evening. VFR conditions will hang on the longest
at AOO and UNV, but lower ceilings will arrive for those sites
by 00Z Wednesday.

Ceilings will continue to lower into the evening, and the
HREF/SREF suggest a 60-90% chance of IFR ceilings for most of
the area after 00Z. LIFR ceilings also appear likely after 06Z
for MDT and LNS. Showers will begin to move in from the west
this evening and will slowly spread eastward into Wednesday
morning.

Low level wind shear will continue for western sites into the
early afternoon as a 40 to 50 knot southeasterly low level jet
remains in place.


Outlook...

Wed...Rain/low cigs possible.

Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.

Thu night-Fri...Improving conds.

Sat...Light rain possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Cooper
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl


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