Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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617
FXUS65 KCYS 241947
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
147 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Tonight...Widespread low cloud cover has limited potential
instability, and therefore we have had less snow shower activity
this afternoon than earlier anticipated. Aside from a few snow
showers this afternoon, expect gradual clearing skies from north to
south overnight as the shortwave trough aloft moves from western
Nebraska to northwest Kansas with surface high pressure settling
overhead.

Wednesday...Another pleasant spring day will occur as a transitory
shortwave ridge aloft moves overhead with plenty of sunshine helping
temperatures to climb into the 60s at lower elevations.

Wednesday night...Next quick moving cold front sweeps southward
across our counties associated with a fast moving shortwave trough
aloft over the Dakotas. Although this system will be limited in low
and mid level moisture compared to the current system affecting us,
will likely still see isolated to scattered late night showers north
of a Rawlins to Chadron line, most numerous over the northern
Laramie Range. The additional cloud cover and winds will make for a
less chilly overnight compared to Tuesday night.

Thursday...Autumnal like day in the wake of the cold front with a
fairly strong surface high building across the western high plains.
With 700 mb temperatures near -4 Celsius and limited cloud cover,
expect high temperatures to fall back into the 50s at lower
elevations.

Thursday night....Continued dry with ridging building overhead. Will
see a colder night in the wake of the cold front with light winds as
well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Warm temperatures are the story in the long term. GFS 700mb
temperatures climb to +8C across southern Albany and Carbon
Counties Friday as westerly mid level winds return. High
temperatures in the 70s expected Friday with possibly 80s in the
Panhandle Saturday. Do have a weak shortwave Saturday that could
produce some isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, but upper
level shear is weak to non existent. So severe storms are not
expected.

Cooler temperatures behind shortwave for Sunday/Monday as GFS
700mb temperatures fall back to +4 to +5C. Next major storm system
looks to be Tuesday night/Wednesday as a low tracks across the
area. GFS really hammering the CWFA with very high QPF and falling
temperatures. ECMWF showing split flow with low tracking across
Montana and New Mexico at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Widespread low clouds seen on satellite imagery across southeast
WYoming and Nebraska Panhandle late this morning. Mainly MVFR
conditions expected to slowly improve through the afternoon. By
00Z, most airports should be VFR with the exception of KSNY. WIll
continue to monitor through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Cold temperatures and high humidity today will keep fire weather
concerns in check. Warming trend through for Wednesday before
another weak cold front moves in for Thursday. Very warm
temperatures Friday into the weekend that will produce very low
afternoon humidity. But given that greenup is underway, fire
weather concerns are expected to be minor.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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