Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 161423

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
823 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 816 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Made a few updates to this mornings forecast. Although the
Warnings and Advisories look good further west across far eastern
Wyoming, a dry slot has remained over portions of the western
Nebraska panhandle. Downgraded the Warning to an advisory for Box
Butte and Dawes county and lowered accumulations from Chadron
southward to Sidney. Believe snow will redevelop in a few hours,
but with the heating of the day, do not expect much impact as the
roads should remain wet and maybe a little slushy. Otherwise,
will likely let the Warnings/Advisories expire on time later


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Quite the low pressure system that moved through the area to our
southeast over the past 12-18 hours. Many areas saw much needed
moisture with others just beginning to get the heavier snow.
Warnings and advisories remain in effect for the Panhandle and
northeast of Cheyenne this morning in southeast Wyoming.

Currently...Surface low analyzed in extreme northwest Kansas this
morning with wrap around moisture pushing northwest into the
Panhandle and portions of southeast Wyoming this morning. Warming
cloud tops seen on IR imagery for areas west of the Laramie Range
with cooling cloud tops along and northeast of a line from
Bridgeport to Douglas. Snow has come to an end for areas south and
west of this line to include Cheyenne this morning. Have therefore
cancelled winter headlines early for areas along and west of I-25
this morning.

GFS isentropic surfaces showing strongest lift shifting into the
Panhandle through the morning hours, so will keep the winter
headlines going out there at least until we get some reports in
from affected areas. Earlier, Chadron ASOS was reporting 1/4 mile
in heavy snow, so confidence fairly high that the warning is going
to pan out in the northern Panhandle this morning.

By 18Z, isentropic surface showing downglide moving into the
Panhandle as well, so shortly afterwards, should see snow coming
to an end out there as well.

Next system set to move into Colorado Sunday with another round of
snow for many areas. Could be another good snow event for areas
east of Laramie Range Sunday into Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Looks like there should be some fairly widespread snow across much
of the CWA Sunday night as the upper low moves east from Colorado
across the OK/KS border area. Pcpn ending during the day Monday
but a chilly day with a cool sfc high settling over the region.
Mainly dry and warming up in the Tuesday through Thursday time
period as upper ridging amplifies and moves across the region. A
few showers possible out west by late Thursday ahead of the next
upper trough that will move onshore along the Pacific coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Expect VFR to prevail over the southeast Wy terminals through the
period with decreasing clouds. There will be some gusty winds
through the day with gusts over 35kts at times. LIFR cigs across
the Neb panhandle terminals with bands of snow and associated low
vsbys. Slow improvement at those sites this afternoon and evening.


Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Low pressure currently in northeast Colorado this morning will
continue to lift northeast into Nebraska through the day today.
Expect snow to quickly come to an end from west to east through
the morning hours. Just about every location in southeast Wyoming
and Nebraska Panhandle has seen wetting rains and some
accumulating snow from this low, so fire weather concerns are
pretty much nonexistent. Another low pressure system set to move
through the area Sunday for more accumulating snow, so fire
weather concerns will remain low across southeast Wyoming and
Nebraska Panhandle into next week.


WY...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ102.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for WYZ101-107-108-

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for NEZ095-

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for NEZ019>021-054-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for NEZ002-



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