Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 122033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
233 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tonight...Progressive shortwave trough aloft sweeping across eastern
Wyoming now and will be in western Nebraska by this evening. The few
light showers associated with the trough will be east of our
counties by this evening. Not quite as cold tonight as the airmass
begins to moderate.

Tuesday...Another relatively mild day with ridging aloft over
western Wyoming and minimal cloud cover for our counties. Maximum
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s with 700 mb temperatures
near -3 Celsius.

Tuesday night...Even more mild overnight as the ridge axis aloft
moves overhead and as the airmass continues to moderate.

Wednesday...Nice warming trend on tap as is typical when the ridge
axis aloft moves to our east, and the flow overhead becomes
southwest. Although will likely see an increase in middle and high
clouds ahead of the next shortwave trough aloft, temperatures will
be quite mild with maximums in the 60s to lower 70s at lower
elevations with 700 mb temperatures near 3 Celsius.

Wednesday night...Even more mild overnight with additional cloud
cover and airmass modification. Isolated to scattered showers
expected across western Carbon County and if there is enough airmass
saturation, showers may be noted further to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Overall it looks to be mild but a bit unsettled this period with
a couple system affecting the region. One upper trough will pass
across late on Thursday bringing fairly widespread rain and snow
to the CWA. EC stronger and colder with the system, moving a
surface and upper low slowly east across Colorado and Kansas
through Friday while the GFS is much faster and weaker. Snow
levels obviously will be tricky so will have to monitor in the
coming days as decent pcpn could occur if the slower EC verifies.
Mainly dry and milder conditions return for Saturday into Sunday
then the next upper trough moves by late Sunday and Sunday night
bringing another shot of rain and snow. Again, snow levels tricky
as not a lot of cold air due to the Pacific origins and bulk of
colder air remaining shunted well north and northeast of the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR expected across for all terminals through the period with light
winds.  Some mid and high clouds passing across this afternoon
with an isolated shower possible over the mtns.


Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Minimal concerns based on projected winds and humidities each




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