Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 212045
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

In the very near term the thing we will have to watch for is
isolated stronger storms across our Wyoming zones where we could
see some small hail and gusty winds to near 50 mph. There is a
small potential (marginal risk) that a couple of storms could go
marginally to lower end severe with larger hail and stronger
winds. Greatest coverages of storms will be for southeastern
Wyoming, but a few storms could make it into Nebraska before
dissipating this evening. Greater coverages of storms expected
tomorrow as moisture depth increases a bit and we see some
stronger shortwave energy ejecting northeastward across the area
from the southwest out of the closed upper low over eastern
Arizona. Again, a few strong to severe storms could be seen along
and east of the Laramie Range in the afternoon and early evening
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

It is still looking like Wednesday offers our higher risk of
severe storms when we see stronger (but not overly impressive) mid
and upper level jet energy traversing the region as the upper low
to the southwest opens up and ejects northeastward across Wyoming.
With weaker shear profiles, main threat would be large hail and
winds, but an isolated tornadic spinnup can`t be ruled out. Still
expecting drier and warmer conditions Thursday into the weekend as
an upper ridge traverses Wyoming and western Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR expected most locations with the exception of watching for
MVFR visibilities and ceilings in passing thunderstorms around
Laramie and Cheyenne through 02Z. Will leave thunder out of
Scottsbluff right now but we may have to add in some thunder
mention Scottsbluff by late afternoon, early evening depending on
how far east the storms along I-25 make it over the next couple of
hours. Also, higher resolution models bring low ceilings and
visibilities in fog to the Sidney area early tomorrow morning, so
we put in a period of LIFR there after 10Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the next several days
as both humidity levels and winds remain below critical thresholds.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur over the higher terrain
this afternoon and shift northeast onto the High Plains east of I-25.
Greater coverages of thunderstorms is expected for the mountains Tuesday
as well as the High Plains of Wyoming. Some stronger thunderstorms will
be possible Wednesday for the High Plains of Wyoming and Nebraska.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG
DECISION SUPPORT DESK...CAH



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