Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
895 ACUS48 KWNS 270858 SWOD48 SPC AC 270857 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat displaced from stronger instability through the period. Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. ...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. ...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains... Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday. ...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains... While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the Southwest. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024