054
FXUS63 KDDC 050910
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
410 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-day Monday into the
  afternoon along and east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge
  City.

- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how
  early in the day storms develop.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible over much of the
  southwest Monday Afternoon.

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
  persist for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A swath of warm air advection was moving north from OK this
morning, generating showers and thunderstorms that will be
approaching the KS state line through sunrise. Southeast
counties have the best chances (20-40%) for measurable rain in
any given location, although QPF (amounts) would only be a few
hundredths of an inch. HREF 4 hr lightning produces about a
40-50 percent chance for thunderstorms over parts of Comanche,
and Barber counties this morning. A few lingering showers might
be around through the mid morning hours.

Cloudy conditions this morning will give way to more sun in the
afternoon, as winds become more southerly as the gradient
increases due to the retreating Plains surface anticyclone.
Gusts in excess of 30 mph will be common west of roughly highway
83 to the Colorado line. Gusts in the western half of the area
will intensify after midnight as the gradient strengthens and
momentum transfer plays a role with the increasing wind speeds
aloft associated with an incoming upper jet into the Central
Plains.

Monday will be much more windy and warm, as a dryline advances
east ahead of a cold front sweeping east to overtake the dryline
in the late morning. Models have trended for days for severe
weather favorable surface dewpoints to spread north into central
Kansas. With steepening lapse rates through a deep layer, and
the available shear for organized supercell development near the
dryline, the afternoon hours will bring a severe weather risk
anywhere east of Scott City to Garden and Liberal line, with
the greater risk of high end severe threats like supercell
tornadoes farther east into the higher dew point air east of
roughly highway 283. A moderate risk outlook (level 4 of 5) has
been highlighted by Storm Prediction Center for for Barber
county, and portions of Comanche and Pratt counties, implying a
15% chance for a Tornado within 25 miles of a point in those
areas. The entire area, west to Dighton , Dodge City and Meade
Minneola is in a favorable area for very significant hail in the
2 to 4 inch range (baseballs or larger possible). The
negatively tilted trough should provide storm motions off the
boundary as opposed to parallel with the boundary, generally
increasing confidence for high impact heterogeneous threats.
Uncertainty however revolves around how long the individual
cells will be in the DDC forecast area as typically the hail
risk will be the initial risk for some time before storms are
able to become tornadic, as well as time (early or later in the
afternoon) of initiation along the advancing dryline/cold front
lifting mechanism.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024


The GFS and ECMWF ensemble 24 hour multiple run trend for
precipitation are completely dry for the rest of the week,
Monday through Friday. Friday night the first hints at
measurable precipitation starts to show up in the ensemble means
and maximizes in the the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. The
deterministic global spectral models show a broad cyclonically
curved jet mid week, becoming more of a strongly positively
tiled trough from the western Great Lakes into the central
Rockies. By the end of the week, the entire synoptic pattern of
these 3 models Canadian/ GFS/EC depicts a split flow pattern
with a sunbelt subtropical jet and cold advection roughly
Thursday into Saturday - potential for frontogenetic forced
showers and thunderstorms in the central Plains and return flow
warm advection precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A warm front will lift to the north through the night switching
the winds to the southeast and bring in lower level moisture
which will cause mid to low level clouds to form. Cloud ceilings
should start to fall between 11-14Z for LBL, DDC, and GCK to
MVFR flight category. Winds will increase by 15Z and with the
mixing we should see the clouds start to break and celiings
increase back to VFR flight category. Winds in the afternoon
will be sustained around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024


A dryline will sweep across the west late Monday morning
followed by a cold front in the late morning and early
afternoon, reinforcing the dry air and downsloping winds. A
combination for low relative humidity and frequent wind gusts in
excess of 20 mph may crate critical fire weather conditions for
a large portion of the area west of highway 23. A Fire Weather
Watch has been posted for the 9 southwesternmost counties for
Monday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99