Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 151844
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent
guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of
terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility
that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas
Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent
on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight.
For now, highlights will be withheld.

..Wendt.. 04/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

...Synopsis...
As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the
Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east.
The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move
eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty
winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the
southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of
critical conditions is uncertain.

...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend...
As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early
D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern
High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly
flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern
NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through
part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a
few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
still appear likely given widespread dry fuels.

Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther
east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty
winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the
secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and
uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this
threat will be brief and localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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