277
FXUS64 KEPZ 081044
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
444 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

No big changes as we persist with warm, dry, and breezy to windy
conditions across the Borderland today and Thursday. Temperatures
will run a few degrees above normal, our atmosphere will continue
quite dry with plenty of sunshine. Marginally windy this
afternoon, and then breezy Thursday. A push form the east on
Friday, will bring some gulf moisture to areas east of the Rio
Grande. Areas to the west will remain dry, but eastern areas may
see some showers or thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

We remain in the base of a large Western U.S. low pressure
pattern, with a quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft. There is a
split-jet pattern, with the upper jet associated with the feature
to our north, and a minor jet to our south; merging to our east
over the Plains states. Satellite imagery shows a long fetch of
dry air continuing to stream over the region. This is deep and dry
air from surface to well aloft. The result of that will be
generally clear skies, very low relative humidity, and no chances
for precipitation for most of the forecast area through the
forecast period.

Temperatures will run fairly consistent from day to day, and be
mild and slightly warmer than the averages; in the 3-5 degree
range above normal, with some additional warming expected next
week. Today has the potential to be the day with the strongest
winds for the 7-day forecast package; and speeds this afternoon
are expected to be very near what we saw yesterday. This means a
breezy to mildly windy afternoon, with sustained west winds in
the 15-25 mph range and gusts in the 30-35 mph range. These winds,
combined with the warm temperatures and dry air, will mean another
day of elevated and critical fire weather conditions across Far
West Texas and Southern New Mexico. For Thursday, another near
repeat, but with a slackening of the winds, back to mainly breezy
for the afternoon.

Friday and Saturday our eastern areas will see an easterly push
from the Plains; with some breezy west slope conditions Friday
night. This will mean some influx of gulf moisture over Otero and
Hudspeth counties, as well as our central lowlands from the Rio
Grande eastward Friday evening into Saturday morning. We will see
fairly shallow moisture move in with dewpoints jumping from the
teens into the 30s and 40s, and PWATs up to near 0.50".
Precipitation/storms with this moisture intrusion looks limited
due to it`s shallow depth, and quick mix out Saturday afternoon.
Still we do have some POPs in for our far eastern zones for late
Friday through Saturday.

Saturday the upper low exits, and helps to flush our brief
moisture wave back east. Sunday into next week, we see some minor
ridging aloft for a slight warming. Westerly will be back in place
with dry air, and afternoon breezes.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

VMC through forecast period under west flow at all flight
levels. Dry conditions leaving skies clear through Wednesday.
Surface winds generally 250-280 at 10-15 knots overnight. Some
low-level wind shear with mountaintop winds (FL070) around 30
knots. Winds increase again Wednesday afternoon, 240-270 at 15 to
25 knots. Peak gusts of 35 knots at local terminals. Will need to
monitor for blowing dust again mid-afternoon but no major
visibility restrictions are anticipated at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Today continues the current run of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across the region, as our general weather
pattern remains mostly unchanged. This means we continue under a
very deep westerly flow pattern at the base of a large Western
U.S. low pressure center. We do not have a strong jet of winds
over the region, but deep mixing, and some surface troughing,
will continue to support breezy to windy conditions across the
region again this afternoon. Temperatures will again top out a few
degrees above seasonal averages, but nothing extreme expected.
Winds will average 15-25 mph sustained, with gusts in the 30-40
mph range. With very dry air in place, RH recoveries will continue
poor, with daily mins in the single-digits and low teens. All this
combines with the typically dry fuels of the season for another
day of Red Flag Warning conditions.

Thursday most of the conditions remain the same (warm and dry),
but winds do slacken just enough to drop RFWs. However,
breezy afternoon conditions will keep fire weather somewhat
elevated.

Late Friday, through early Saturday, a backdoor frontal push out
of the plains will bring in some gulf moisture on easterly winds
for eastern and central areas (the western fire zones will stay
in the drier environment). The TX zones and NM 113 and 112 will
see elevated dewpoints and better RH with breezy eastern winds.
There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms late Friday
into Saturday for those areas, while the Rio Valley, west remains
in quite dry air. The moisture gets shoved back east pretty
quickly Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves into the plains,
and begins to bring westerlies back over the region.

Sunday through early next week, we will come under weak ridging
and then zonal flow, to add some warmth, and keep the region
seasonably dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  61  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               87  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               83  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               60  40  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    83  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              73  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   85  48  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                82  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       86  58  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  53  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  56  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               79  54  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  58  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             85  53  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           85  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            83  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    85  48  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 85  54  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                82  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  72  44  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                71  43  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 69  41  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  74  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                80  47  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                82  46  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             74  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   78  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    80  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               75  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  77  46  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  50  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               78  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird