Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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991 FXUS63 KFGF 240458 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain this weekend but only a 30-50% for more than an inch. && UPDATE Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Winds continue their downward trend as expected with temperatures already falling into the 34-37 range over parts of the northern RRV. Forecast lows in mid 20s near Lake of the Woods to the lower 30s in our south still seem reasonable. Due to ideal radiational conditions and Tds in the teens to lower 20s across the north, it is certainly possible for colder spots to fall below 25. UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Winds have started to show decreasing trends northwest to southeast. There had been sporadic obs near critical fire weather conditions (20-25% RH and gusts around 25 mph) in northeast ND, but these have been sporadic and localized and with stronger gusts already decreasing there hasn`t been a reason to introduce any enhanced fire weather messaging. Minor adjustments were made to near term trends (mainly sky cover clearing and winds decreasing), otherwise the forecast is on track for tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Building low level thermal ridging continues to shift east tonight with a surface trough moving across the valley overnight. This shift winds from the north to the south by mid morning Wednesday. With the exit of the upper low as this ridging moves in we lose our pressure gradient and cold air advection from 925mb to 700mb reducing the winds with gusts dropping off before sunset tonight. Not looking at any notable precip chances prior to Friday as low level dry air lingers resulting in sunny skies asides from some afternoon cumulus tomorrow though the high dewpoint spreads at the top of the boundary may inhibit even this. RH as low as 20-25 percent are a 30% chance but hinge on afternoon mixing getting our temps closer to 70 than than currently expected mid 60s for highs. This would be tied to the strength of 700mb warm air advection though not anticipating extremely strong WAA under the ridge axis. Thus RH closer to 30% and no near critical fire weather as winds remain less than 15 knots. Moving later in the week a deformation axis moves in aloft Thursday afternoon into Friday increasing precip chances though northeast low level flow is likely to be dry and at least initially result in depressed precip chances. This makes sense based on pattern recognition looking at the past 2 systems which had similar evolutions as rain held off longer than originally anticipated. As the main wave tracks north out of the central plains better moisture begins to wrap in from the south with more widespread rain likely by Friday morning depending on the arrival time of the upper low. The inverted trough being depicted by ensemble solutions at this time remains west of our area thus the precip should remain evenly distributed aside from any convective pockets. Best chance for any isolated thunderstorms will be Thursday night Friday as the max theta-e tongue arches into the ND-SD border. Probs for greater than 100 J/kg of cape max out near 30 percent in the south but remain tied closely to the northeast side of the low so will have to monitor trends for any severe threat but likely at least an isolated thunderstorm threat. Looking at greater than an 80% chance for most areas of seeing 0.25" though pre-wave dry air could trim these chances to favor the south and east more. For a widespread 1" or more only seeing a 30-50% chance and would likely have to rely more on seeing a convective shower than sustained rain to hit this threshold. Once this system exits the area on Saturday with high pressure moving in behind from the north/northwest we get a short break before another upper low looks to swing into the northern plains Sunday/Monday. Looking to continue the active pattern into next week with a perturbed jet stream favoring active weather across the central US into early May. For northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota look for near to above average moisture over the next 2 weeks and similarly above average temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, though there is a chance (less than 20%) for low stratus and light ground fog to develop in the vicinity of KBJI before sunrise Wednesday morning. Surface ridging shifting east is already resulting in lighter winds with light and variable/calm winds through Wednesday morning sunrise. Winds eventually increase to the 7-11kt range from the south-southwest as surface low pressure builds to the west and a layer of 6-10 KFT AGL CU may develop during the midday/afternoon period (mainly in ND). Winds eventually shift to the southeast Wednesday evening to the 7-14kt range in eastern ND (highest near KDVL) as surface gradient increase. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...DJR