767
FXUS65 KFGZ 302155
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
rest of the week. Winder, more unsettled weather potentially
returns later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Zonal flow over northern Arizona will brought clear
skies, 3 to 5 degrees of warming, and increasing southwest winds
to our area. Clear skies, light winds, and near average low
temperatures are expected tonight.

A shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin on Wednesday
will bring increasing southwest winds, a few degrees of cooling,
and some high clouds to the area. Heights and temperatures rebound
slightly on Thursday as morning winds become northeast...then
return from the southwest in the afternoon. Continued warming and
increasing southwest winds are expected on Friday.

By Friday afternoon, both the EC and GFS have been consistent and
in good agreement on the formation of a large and strong area of
low pressure forming off the Pacific Northwest Coast. Both models
show this low moving southeast to a position off the southwest
Oregon Coast by Saturday afternoon...and then diverge on the
solution. The EC then takes the low to the east and across central
Montana by Monday. The GFS continues to move the low
southeastward and over northern Arizona late Sunday into Monday.
The NBM leans heavily on the EC solution with POPs...and little if
any precipitation for Arizona. At this point, the forecast calls
for cooler and windier conditions this weekend and into Monday.
Stay tuned to see how this system develops and if the potential
for precipitation increases.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/00Z through Wednesday 01/00Z...VFR conditions are
forecast. Wind speeds will decrease after 01Z, but winds will
increase again after 16Z Wednesday becoming southwest 10-20 gusting
20-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...VFR conditions
will persist with afternoon winds from the southwest gusting 10-20
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Look for dry conditions
and near average temperatures. Afternoon southwest winds 10-20 mph
gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday, decreasing to southwest 5-10 mph
gusting 10-20 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 10-20% each
day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions continue. Southwest wind
gusts 10-20 mph are forecast for Friday, increasing to 20-30 mph
Saturday. During this time, minimum RH values will be around 10-20%.
On Sunday, a passing low pressure system will bring stronger
southwest winds, with a 60-90% chance of wind gusts above 40 mph.
While this system will likely bring little to no rainfall,
humidity may also increase, primarily along and south of the
Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff